After a brief reprieve from the cold midweek, another shot of much colder-than-normal air arrives this weekend, affecting a larger area of the East than today’s chill, which is more focused in New England.
Notice how parts of the East keep showing up as among the coldest spots in the Northern Hemisphere relative to normal. That’s been the case for a lot of the winter and, on balance, the last 1.5 years.
While the East has been cold, the West has been warm. Into the first 10 days or so of April, models generally suggest the same warm-West, cool-East pattern.
In the East, we should stress it’s not going to be colder than average every day, and milder days will sneak in between cold fronts, like Thursday this week. Also, what we consider average keeps shifting warmer. The average high in Washington ticks up from 58 on March 23 to 65 on April 10. In New York and Boston, average highs rise from 52 to 59 and 47 to 54 in this same span, respectively.
“It’s still a seasonal to cool pattern for the next two to three weeks in the Northeast,” says Capital Weather Gang’s Matt Rogers, a specialist in long-range prediction. “It’s going to be a very slow grind to more sustained spring-like weather — a much slower evolution than we’re used to.”
Some models suggest a milder pattern may finally take over around mid-April. However, Rogers cautions confidence in that outlook is low.
“We’re getting to the time of year in which model forecasts are not that reliable,” Rogers said. “We’re getting a lot of mixed signals.”