TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

5/10: Split decision – Nice morning gives way to afternoon clouds, chilly breeze, shower chance

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Increasing clouds, breezy, small shower chance. Highs: 59-64.
Tonight: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows: 40-47.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs: 65-69.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

The coming week has its share of nice days but really takes until the weekend to hit its stride and offer some real warmth.  Today isn’t all bad, but could certainly be milder considering it’s the tail end of April. After a couple of good-looking days Tuesday and Wednesday, rain could then visit Thursday. But the weekend shows considerable promise.  Indeed, the cool pattern we’ve had over the past week should finally cave when the calendar flips to May.

Today (Monday): We awaken to some sunshine, but it’s the self-defeating kind.  That is, the morning sun – given a pool of cold air at high altitudes – fuels the development of afternoon clouds which put a lid on temperatures and may produce a few showers (20-40 percent chance, highest to the north of the District).  The clouds along with a breeze from the northwest at 10-15 mph, gusting to 25 mph make the afternoon feel cooler than highs around 60 to the low 60s indicate. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and breezy conditions in the evening turn partly cloudy and calmer late at night.  It’s a chilly one with lows near 40 in our cooler suburbs to the mid-to-upper 40s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Tuesday): It’s a few degrees cooler than average but really quite nice. Under partly to mostly sunny skies, highs rally into the mid-to-upper 60s. There’s still a bit of a breeze out of the north around 10-15 mph, but it’s not as gusty as Monday. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Partly cloudy to mostly clear and cool.  Lows range from the low-to-mid 40s in the suburbs to near 50 downtown. Confidence: Medium-High


Daffodils in Burnside Farm, Haymarket, Va. April 25, 2015 ( Erin Kelly via Flickr )

A LOOK AHEAD

The balance of Wednesday looks great. Mostly sunny skies in the morning may turn partly sunny as some high clouds increase from a storm system developing in the south.  Highs range from 65-70. Increasing clouds with a 50 percent chance of rain developing overnight, with lows in the 50s. Confidence: Medium

On Thursday, a southern storm may start to make its move up the East Coast or turn more out to sea.  An up-the-coast track would result in a cool rain and breezy conditions, with highs only 55-60.  A more out-to-sea track would mean the likelihood of some sunshine and temperatures pushing 70.    Right now, I favor the wetter-cooler solution – but Thursday’s forecast is one that could change a bit in the next couple days, so keep an eye on it.  In the rainy scenario, rain could linger Thursday night; otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies.  Lows are probably around 50 under either scenario. Confidence: Low-Medium

There a small chance of lingering rain Friday, especially in the morning.  But – by afternoon – we should be drying out (if we haven’t dried out already).  Highs range from the low-to-mid 60s (rainy scenario) to near 70 (dry scenario). Confidence: Low-Medium

The weekend has a chance to be fantastic, with partly to mostly sunny skies both days, highs 70-75 and lows 45-55 (suburbs-city). Despite my optimism, keep checking back as it’s the time of year when subtle changes in weather systems could mess up the forecast. Confidence: Medium