For 2015 to stay in front of this three horse race through the end of the month, its average temperature will need to beat 1991’s month-ending value of 72.95F, the warmest level recorded. To do that, the weekend average temperature will need to be at least 76 degrees.
If you’re pulling for this year to get the record, we have a pretty solid chance. The forecast highs and lows on Saturday and Sunday are 87 and 71 and 83 and 68, respectively – which produce an average temperature of about 77. In light of our current position and the forecast, I’d give us 80 percent odds of winning.
May 2015’s average temperature, likely to finish around 73F, will just be 2 degrees cooler than D.C.’s June average temperature of 75. We weren’t kidding when we pronounced spring over in early May.
This May has been consistently warm from start to finish. We had a streak of 10 days at 80F or higher in the first half of the month – the longest on record. We’ve also set or tied 6 record high overnight low temperatures.
Temperatures are forecast to be much cooler than normal for the first few days of June, but then we should shoot back up to near and above average levels.
Our summer outlook, released yesterday, calls for slightly above temperatures overall during June.
* The monthly average temperature of 72.75F through assumes an average temperature of 78F, based on a high of 82 and low of 74.