More than half a foot of flooding rain has fallen since Friday just to the north of Tampa and more downpours threaten parts of the Sunshine State this week as disturbed weather stews over the region.

Through this evening, flood watches are in effect from around Ft. Myers to New Port Richey along Florida’s west coast due to saturated soils and the potential for as much as 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of what has already fallen.

This latest wave of heavy rain is forecast as low pressure, which formed along a stalled front draped across Florida and the eastern Gulf, tracks across the northern part of the Florida peninsula.

Late last week, there were concerns this low might become a tropical depression or storm and move up the East Coast.  But the latest forecasts keep the low offshore after crossing Florida and conditions are not favorable for additional development due to hostile wind shear.

The low pressure organized this weekend as a deluge afflicted Pasco County, Florida.  Three hundred homes were evacuated in this county just north of Tampa – threatened by the rising Anclote River.

Around Trinity – which is just to the northeast of Tarpon Springs – drone footage from Sunday showed the extent of the flooding:

“More than 11 inches of rain have fallen near Holiday, Florida [in Pasco Co.], in the 72 hours ending 10:19 p.m. EDT Sunday, resulting in some reports of flooding,” reported’s Jonathan Erdman and Nick Wiltgen. “Tarpon Springs, Florida, has seen nearly 9 inches of rain.”

Doppler estimated rainfall over the last 72 hours. (NWS)
Doppler estimated rainfall over the last 72 hours. (NWS)


The potential for more bouts of heavy rain lasts through the work week as a stalled front remains draped across the state, where winds may converge aiding the flare-up of showers and storms.

Rainfall forecast through Saturday morning (NWS)

The rains, unfortunately, are forecast to concentrate to the north of Southeast Florida which is in severe to extreme drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.