The remnants of Hurricane Danny Monday morning (NOAA)

Just a few days ago, Danny was a powerful, though compact category 3 hurricane. Today, the one-time formidable storm is dead.

“The system … lacks sufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone,” writes the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its 11 a.m. discussion, which it says is its last.

All that remains of the one-time major hurricane is an amorphous mass of cloud cover over the northern Lesser Antilles, with no recognizable center of circulation. Maximum sustained winds are just 30 mph, down from 115 mph on Friday.

Since the weekend, high altitude winds have sheared the tropical cyclone while dry air has interrupted its thunderstorm development. The net result has been the storm’s rapid degeneration.

As Danny’s remnants track eastward over the next couple of days, areas of thunderstorms may still generate some downpours over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands as well as Puerto Rico before they dissipate almost entirely.

New tropical storm may form over the central tropical Atlantic


Tropical wave (AL98) Monday morning (NOAA)

Some 1,250 miles east of what remains of Danny, a tropical wave has become better organized over the past day and has a 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours according to the NHC. “Satellite data also indicates that the low’s circulation is gradually becoming
better defined,” the NHC writes.

Should this disturbance become a tropical storm, its name will be Erika.

Hurricane track models track this fledgling system just north of west for the next 72 hours towards the northern Lesser Antilles before turning more to the northwest later this week, generally north of Puerto Rico but perilously close.


Model track forecasts for tropical wave (AL98). (UCAR)

Beyond that, it’s very difficult to project the storm’s path. Not to mention, as Erika moves westward, it may have to battle some of the challenging environmental conditions that marked the demise of Danny.