11:00 a.m. update: Dry air is winning out so far today. There are even a few thinner spots in the clouds around late this morning. It’s still hard to say it won’t rain at all in the local area at this point, but thus far only the far southern parts have seen showers since the sun came up. Some modeling, like the NAM below, shows rain pushing back north a bit this afternoon. The NAM does seem somewhat overdone looking at radar, but we’ll keep an eye out.
From 5:00 a.m…
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
5/10: Cloudy, breezy, and some showers around. Tough forecast worth an extra point down from yesterday.
Today: Cloudy, breezy. Showers possible. Highs: Upper 60s to low 70s.
Tonight: Cloudy, showers possible. Lows: Upper 50s to mid-60s.
Tomorrow: Cloudy, showers possible. Highs: Upper 60s to low 70s.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
We need the rain. I’m still sorry clouds and the chance for it has to focus on a weekend. I do think we see dry periods for much of today, with rain tending to still target areas mainly to our south. It’s even looking like tomorrow might not offer a whole lot of stuff falling from the clouds, but that’s still very much up in the air. If you’re already getting sick of the clouds… Once we get past this system, it seems we might stay in a rather murky pattern for a while.
Today (Saturday): Today is quite a bit like yesterday, but with slightly higher odds of showers at times, especially in the immediate area and south. That said, I think the steadiest rain should generally try to stay south of much of the area once again. A push of moisture or two should try to break north though, even as soon as morning. When it’s not showering or sprinkling, the marine air mass mixed with a breeze makes it feel kind of clammy. Highs are mainly in the upper 60s and low 70s. Winds are from the east and northeast. They’re sustained around 10-15 mph, with gusts past 20 mph at times. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: This rain maker is not very strong as far as low pressure systems go, so we could see dry air win out again as we head into the evening and overnight. It’s kind of a back and forth shoving match between the rain and the dry air. I wouldn’t rule out showers, especially in the immediate area or to the south and to the southwest. These could happen at any time, perhaps in waves and favoring late night toward dawn. If it’s not raining and you don’t feel like carrying an umbrella, just give us or radar a check before heading out. Lows reach the upper 50s in the coolest spots north and west to the mid-60s in the city. Breezes continue to be stiff from the east and northeast. Confidence: Medium
For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…
Tomorrow (Sunday): Will it rain or won’t it? It should try to rain, at least a bit. How much is another question still to be resolved. Living on the northern edge of a storm system is always tricky! For now, I’d favor the light end of totals, or hundredths to tenths of an inch rather than much more. The best sustained rain chances are likely southwest and maybe even west of the city. Heading further north and northeast, your odds of not seeing much (or any?) rain are very real. This is about as tricky a forecast as you get at such short range. At least we’re talking rain and not snow! Temperatures are again mainly in the near 70 or just above zone, but wetter could mean mainly 60s. Confidence: Low-Medium
Tomorrow night: Showers continue to be possible into the evening and perhaps much of the night. The risk of more appreciable stuff should be passing though. Unfortunately for those hoping to see the “supermoon” eclipse, the odds aren’t so great across the region. We’ll try to whip up a break or two, and the drier Sunday idea may help support that a little. Lows mostly fall into the mid-60s. Confidence: Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Light showers or drizzle may stick around into Monday, and we could even see a risk of late-day showers or a rumble. Hopefully we’ll see it clear out at some point during the day, but the stagnated weather pattern is in no major rush to change. With less in the way of consistent rain around the region, highs should head toward the mid-and-upper 70s. Confidence: Medium
Coming off lows mainly in the low-to-mid 60s, Tuesday may offer a little bit of a break in this gloomy weather. Probably not a huge one though. Plan on mostly cloudy skies and maybe even a few more showers late in the day or during the evening into overnight. It’s another “warmer” (a bit above average now) day, as highs rise into the mid-70s to near 80. Confidence: Medium