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D.C. area forecast: Warm with late-day showers and storms today, then autumn returns for the weekend

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A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

8/10: A small taste of summer in October. Warm, a bit muggy, showers and storms late. Sun angle’s a lot lower!


Today: Cloudier, p.m. showers/storms. Breezy. Highs: Upper 70s to low 80s.
Tonight: Showers ending, trending clearer late. Lows: Mid-to-upper 50s.
Tomorrow: Partly to mostly sunny, breezy. Highs: Mid-to-upper 60s.
Sunday: Mainly sunny. Highs: Near 70 to mid-70s.


It’s breezy before our summery, possibly stormy conditions today, and through our more autumn-like weekend ahead. For sunshine lovers, enjoy what little there is today. There’s more to come tomorrow, as this front is pushing through before the weekend really gets going. After putting away the umbrella later tonight, consider finding that light jacket. Get outside and enjoy what we have in the coming days, into early next week past Columbus Day!

Today (Friday): Clouds are on the increase, but I think more breaks than full overcast skies are possible through at least late morning. The sun does its best to stick around until showers — and probably some storms — move in. Rain becomes likely at some point between mid-and-late afternoon then running into the evening. You might want to keep a watch on how the evening commute period progresses, as that might be about when stuff is dropping in.

Overall, rain amounts aren’t too much to write home about except if you are unlucky (lucky?) enough to have a thunderstorm really get you. Activity should move by fairly quickly, and the risk for strong to severe storms is low but not zero. Ready for a quick summer surge in temperatures with upper 70s to low 80s? Hope you haven’t put those shorts away! Southwest breezes around 10 mph could gust toward 20 mph at times. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Clouds persist for much of the night as evening showers and storms continue to linger perhaps into the post-sunset period. As we get further after dark, the risk of rain should become negligible. Low temperatures are mostly in the mid-to-upper 50s as northwesterly winds gust to around 20 mph at times. A light jacket wouldn’t be uncalled for behind the front. Confidence: Medium

For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast into next week…

Tomorrow (Saturday): If clouds are still around in the morning, they’re out of here quick. It looks like we can generally expect to enjoy a sunny and dry day. A bit autumnal, which I think many of us will enjoy, with high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 60s. But here is the kicker that may warrant a windbreaker or other type of jacket: north winds at around 10 to 15 mph. Definitely fall-like. But the good news is that winds do start settling down a bit during the afternoon. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Breezes are on the decline, along with temperatures. When the atmosphere has calm conditions and few clouds (as may be the case for the evening into overnight hours), little stands in the way of heat directly escaping from the warm surfaces–where we live–into the upper atmosphere. What does that mean for low temperatures? About as nippy as we have experienced recently, with 40s expected region-wide. Even a few upper 30s in the calmest, clearest valleys of the Blue Ridge can’t be ruled out either. Confidence: Medium-High

Sunday: This one lives up to its name, with much in the way of blue sky. Sunshine also helps our chilly morning warm quickly into afternoon high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Wind direction appears to be mainly out of the north or northeast, so we may not be able to count on much of a wind-induced warm surge. At least any breeze appears to want to stay light. Confidence: Medium-High


Sunday night: Cool again. Low temperatures are set to take full advantage of our longer nights, which allow for greater cooling duration between sunset and sunrise. Clear skies over most of the region means we don’t have much or any insulating cloud “blanket” either. Low temperatures downtown around 50 are not out of the question, with mid-to-upper 40s probable outside of the Beltway. Confidence: Medium-High

We could be in for some “clear sailing” (get it?) for Columbus Day into Tuesday. Mostly blue skies and sunshine both days illuminate some lovely fall weather. High temperatures are likely around 70 to the mid-70s. We may have just light north of northwest breezes helping us feel refreshed, especially during midday hours. Autumn at its best! We’ll watch the temperature trend to see if we have to modify this a few degrees as we get closer. Confidence: Medium