We’ve said it repeatedly, this winter’s weather and the amount of snow that will fall is extremely difficult to predict.  Big El Niños, like the one we have this year, have historically produced wildly varying snowfall amounts in the D.C. area.

It’s the time of year in which winter outlooks are issued every few days and it appears they are, unsurprisingly, falling into two camps: Snowy and not so snowy.

The latest outlook issued, from WUSA’s Topper Shutt – popularly known as ‘Tenacious Topper’ – calls for below normal snow in the D.C. area.

“When it comes to snow fall, we are forecasting less than 10 inches in southern Maryland, 10 to 15 inches in the immediate metro area and 15 to 25 in our far northern and western suburbs – all below average,” Shutt writes.

Shutt writes that he favors El Niño to bring milder than normal air into the region, which lowers the odds for heavy snow amounts.

Shutt’s outlook and rationale mirror our own, issued on Nov. 10.  We’re glad to see him join our camp.

But NBC4’s Doug Kammerer, who issued his outlook on Nov. 9, is predicting a third straight snowier than normal winter.

“Storm Team4 predicts at least one big snowstorm, which could drive up the snowfall total,” NBC Washington reports. “If an El Niño storm moves in our direction when enough cold air is present, we could have a monster storm.”

As a snow lover, I hope Kammerer is right even though that would mean our outlook is wrong.

ABC7 and FOX5 have yet to issue their outlooks. It will be interesting to see which camp they join.

For now, take a moment to enter your own prediction in our annual snowfall forecast contest. The deadline is 5 p.m. today (Tuesday, Nov. 17):

Outlook maps

NBC4, Nov. 9

Capital Weather Gang, Nov. 10

WUSA9, Nov. 17