11:30 a.m. update: The National Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for snow showers forecast to zip through the region this evening, most likely between about 4 and 8 p.m. – potentially coinciding with rush hour. As road surfaces are cold, slick spots are possible.
Some areas may not see much snow, if any, while others may see a dusting to – at the very most – a quick inch. Use caution if it’s snowing during your commute, or consider delaying until the heaviest snow passes.
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
5/10: A little warmer with less wind, as possible snow showers set the mood for big late-week storm.
Today: Chance of p.m. snow flurries/showers. Highs: Near 30 to low 30s.
Tonight: Chance of evening snow flurries/showers. Lows: Upper teens to mid-20s.
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny. Highs: Mid-to-upper 30s.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
Confidence remains fairly high in a serious winter storm impacting the region Friday into the weekend, with the potential for double-digit snow amounts, strong winds and power outages, although there is still time for the storm track and impacts to change a bit. First, we may have some snow showers to deal with later today, even as temperatures moderate a bit through tomorrow.
Today (Wednesday): Another chilly start today as morning temperatures climb out of the teens, on their way to afternoon highs near 30 to the low 30s under mostly cloudy skies. Winds are fairly light, but still add a bit of a wind chill at around 5-10 mph. Snow flurries or snow showers are possible during the mid-afternoon into the evening as a little Clipper system comes through. Shouldn’t see more than a dusting, but with the cold ground we could see some roads turn briefly slick as the sun goes down late this afternoon and into the evening. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Any snow should end by around midnight, again with the potential of a dusting to briefly slicken road surfaces. Otherwise we’re not as cold as the past couple nights, with clearing skies late and lows down to the upper teens to mid-20s.. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow (Thursday): Mostly sunny skies shine down tomorrow as our storm gets organized along the Gulf Coast. Highs head for the mid-to-upper 30s with breezes still in check, around 10 mph or less from the northwest. Confidence: High
Tomorrow night: Skies may stay mostly clear into the evening, but we should see increasing clouds overnight as the storm starts to get closer. Lows should settle mainly in the low-to-mid 20s. Confidence: Medium-High
A LOOK AHEAD
Snow moves into the area from the southwest on Friday, sometime between approximately 10 a.m. and 3 p.m the way it looks now, and is likely heavy at times through Saturday. As of now it looks like mostly snow for the greater D.C. area, though a period of sleet could mix in especially south and east of the District, perhaps even some rain in Southern Maryland. We have a good chance at seeing snow totals of 8 inches or more, and some chance of 16 inches or more. Can’t rule out 20 inches or more. Strong winds on Saturday combined with heavy have the potential to cause power outages. Temperatures should be fairly steady in the upper 20s to low 30s throughout the event.
Despite solid model consensus, there is still time for the storm track to shift a bit further north and west, which could introduce a longer period of sleet and thus less snow. Or the storm could track a bit further to the south and east, which would increase the likelihood of all snow, but could reduce the overall amount of precipitation. We’ll issue our first snowfall accumulation map later today. Confidence: Medium
The snow should exit Saturday night or early Sunday, leaving behind a cold and breezy Sunday with increasing sun and highs in the mid-30s to near 40. Confidence: Medium-High
SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
9/10 (↑): Several inches very likely Friday through early Sunday. Decent chance of double-digit totals