If we include only the analogs from moderate to strong El Nino years, like the current one, the top four matches were all megastorms, as illustrated in the image above. They are:
Another one of the analogs is the Blizzard of January 1996, which unloaded 17.1 inches, but occurred during a La Nina year.
Let’s just say this storm shares pedigree with the blockbusters, assuming the models have its characteristics pegged.
Taking the average of the top 15 analogs, the snowfall this particular pattern would produce is in the range of 12 to 18 inches (see top image), which is very close to forecasts.