TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

5/10: It’s the last day this week we’ll see 40 degrees. Precip through PM commute shouldn’t be consequential.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Becoming mostly cloudy. Highs: 40-45.
Tonight: Rain and snow changes to snow. Lows: 30-35.
Tomorrow: Intermittent snow, mostly light. Highs: 33-38.

FORECAST IN DETAIL

Winter wants to throw a lot at us this week. It begins with the tricky winter storm tonight and Tuesday that could bring substantial snow in our northern suburbs and hardly any in the south. Tuesday morning’s commute may be an adventure. Then, the coldest air of the winter so far plunges into the region by Thursday and hangs on right through the holiday weekend, which could yield some storminess by its tail end.

Today (Monday): Clouds lower and thicken throughout the morning into the afternoon. There’s a slight (20 percent) of some light rain and/or light snow before dark, mainly in our western suburbs, but no accumulation is expected in the day time hours, with highs 40-45 degrees. Light winds from the north. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Light rain develops between about 5 and 8 p.m., except light snow in our colder areas north and west of a line from Warrenton, Va. to Columbia, Md. Areas that have rain early on, mix with and change to snow by around midnight. Periods of snow are then likely through dawn, with the greatest coverage north of the Beltway where 1-3 inches or so could accumulate. Areas south of town may only see widely scattered snow showers with little or no accumulation. Overnight lows range from 30 in our coldest areas north and west to the mid-30s in areas south and southeast of the Beltway. Confidence: Low-Medium

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram for the latest updates. For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through the weekend…

Tomorrow (Tuesday): Slick travel, delays, and cancellations are possible in the morning, especially in the north and west suburbs. Continuing periods of snow are a good bet, especially north and northeast of the District. From the District south and southwest, scattered, intermittent snow showers are more likely – lighter and less frequent than the snow to the north. Additional accumulations may be minimal south of the District, but up to a few more inches are possible north and northeast of town. Highs are in the upper 30s southeast of town and in the low-to-mid 30s north of town, where snow is most persistent. Confidence: Low-Medium

Tomorrow night: Scattered snow showers may continue into the evening, so the commute home could be impacted by lowered visibility and slick spots, especially north of town. Temperatures drop below freezing everywhere, with lows ranging from the low-to-mid 20s in our colder suburbs to the upper 20s downtown. Partial clearing begins after midnight as it turns breezy, with winds from the west and northwest at 10-20 mph. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Wednesday’s blustery and cold, under variably cloudy skies. I can’t rule out a few snow flurries, with highs in the low-to-mid 30s. Wind chills throughout the day are mostly in the 20s. Partly cloudy, breezy and very cold Wednesday night, with lows in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. Confidence: Medium

The period Thursday through Sunday is unmistakably cold and may remain below freezing for the duration. Wind chills will be brutal at times. Highs are generally in the 20s to near 30 with lows in the teens. On Sunday, lows may be in the single digits (or even near zero in some of our colder areas) with highs only 20-25. It’s a mostly dry stretch, but scattered snow flurries or snow showers can’t be ruled out Saturday, in particular. Confidence: Medium

There’s some potential for winter storminess early next week, around Presidents’ Day or the day after, but models aren’t in agreement on the threat, i.e. whether a storm will even come to fruition, much less its specifics.

SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

6/10 (↑): Better than even chances someone in the D.C. area gets at least an inch, but we’re on the edge.