* Winter weather advisory in effect for northern and far western suburbs through midnight *
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
5/10: Sloppy and slushy, not as pretty and fluffy.
Today: Mixed rain and snow. Highs: 35-40.
Tonight: Lingering evening light snow. Lows: 22-28.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, few flurries possible. Highs: 35-40.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
What a mess. Weaker winter weather systems like this one are notoriously difficult to forecast, particularly when temperatures are hovering right around the freezing point. Just one degree colder or warmer than forecast can make huge differences in outcomes. This complicated weather system has very weak features with splotchy precipitation and borderline temperatures. As a result, we could see a wide variation in results today in different parts of the Washington region.
Beyond the storm, we stay cloudy and on the colder side tomorrow with increased winds before we slide into a deeper freeze situation late this week and especially this weekend. Very cold temperatures should be strongest by Sunday with lows into the single digits (some sub-zeroes far west and north) and highs in the teens to 20s before we start to rebound warmer by later on President’s Day.
Today (Tuesday): Scattered areas of rain and snow could make roads slushy and slippery, especially in the far west and northwest suburbs — and into the Baltimore area — where snow is likely to be heaviest, and temperatures coldest. Temperatures hold in the 30s and only lift slightly through the day. Another round of precipitation midday through afternoon should be mainly wet snow around the majority of the D.C. area. Heavier snow is again possible in those far west and northwest suburbs where temperatures closer to freezing will lead to more significant snow accumulations, especially toward the colder late afternoon and early evening hours. Confidence: Low-Medium
Tonight: Snow continues into the evening hours and we could start to see accumulation in the immediate D.C. area (Dusting to 2 inches) including on previously wet road surfaces as temperatures slip toward and around the freezing mark. Lows toward dawn range from the lower 20s in the outer suburbs to the middle to upper 20s in the city. Untreated areas freeze, so be careful out there. Confidence: Low-Medium
Tomorrow (Wednesday): Mostly cloudy, cold and breezy with temperatures slowly lifting up through the 30s, peaking by afternoon in the middle 30s to around 40. Scattered flurries are possible in the afternoon. Winds from the west at 1o to 15 mph with some higher gusts add some wind chill factor to the day. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Partly to mostly cloudy with lows dropping down into the lower to middle 20s. Still breezy with winds from the west and northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Confidence: Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Thursday should be partly sunny and colder as temperatures only manage to reach the upper 20s to low 30s. Conditions remain breezy and there is even a chance for a passing flurry again. Thursday night turns even colder with lows in the teens in the suburbs to around 20 right in the city under partly cloudy skies. Confidence: Medium
Friday keeps our colder story going as highs only manage to reach the low 30s. Skies should be partly sunny in the morning, but become a bit more cloudy again in the afternoon. Friday night runs the risk of snow showers. Confidence: Low-Medium
We could see some snow showers linger into Saturday morning, but the big story this weekend is a massively colder pattern. Skies should be mostly sunny both Saturday and Sunday as arctic high pressure moves overhead. Highs range from the middle 20s to near 30 on Saturday and only in the 20s on Sunday. Saturday night is clear and very cold with lows from the single digits in the suburbs to the low to middle teens in the city. Some clouds by Sunday night could help boost temperatures a bit warmer (teens to 20s range) and then President’s Day Monday looks partly cloudy and slowly warmer with highs in the 30s. Confidence: Medium
SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
6/10 (→): Temperatures are marginal, so D.C. should still struggle to get that inch today, but we also have another slight chance Friday night.