Crocuses in bloom mean spring is just around the corner. (ducky via Flickr )

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

8/10: March’s warm welcome mat makes this Matt tip his hat to a more amenable thermostat.


Today: Sunny AM, partly cloudy PM. Highs: 59-65.
Tonight: Cloudy, showers late. Lows: 41-45.
Tomorrow: Turning colder, breezy. Highs: 43-47.


As we turn the calendar over to the third month of 2016, we maintain the warm air mass of recent days for just one more with lots of morning sunshine before a cold front approaches. Clouds return this afternoon, showers overnight, and then colder weather by tomorrow with some gusty winds. Colder than normal conditions then dominate Thursday through Saturday with a shot at some light snow Thursday night and then mixed rain/snow on Friday morning. Sunday sets the stage for another re-warming story that should lead to a much warmer pattern next week.

Today (Tuesday): The morning offers pleasant conditions with quickly-warming air amid lots of sunshine, but clouds in the afternoon arrive to mar it a bit as highs top out in the comfortable upper 50s to middle 60s range. Light breezes blow mainly from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clouds dominate the night skies with showers arriving after midnight and carrying on toward the start of rush hour. Temperatures only cool to the low 50s by midnight, but then finally reach the lows in the low to middle 40s toward dawn. Winds pick up from the southwest at 15-20 mph with some higher gusts, especially in the early morning hours. Rainfall totals should be around a tenth to a quarter inch.  Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Wednesday): Scattered early morning showers are possible, and then we should see rapid clearing through the morning hours leading to a partly to mostly sunny day. But the big story will be the winds combined with colder conditions. Temperatures should hold in the low to middle 40s with winds blowing from the northwest at 15-20 mph with gusts to 30-40 mph. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Mostly clear, but still windy and also colder. Lows by dawn get down to the low-middle 20s in the outer suburbs to the low 30s in the city. Winds still blow from the northwest at 10-15 mph with some higher gusts.  Confidence: Medium


Thursday may start off with some sunshine, but clouds roll in during the day and temperatures run colder than normal. Highs aim for the low to middle 40s, but winds are lighter, at least. A slight chance of rain or snow showers in the far western suburbs by late in the day. Thursday night brings light precipitation to the area in the form of rain and snow. Snowfall totals are expected to be very light, but there is a chance for one to maybe 3 inches, with the highest chance for accumulation in the western to northwestern suburbs. Low temperatures range in the low 30s in most areas with colder western to northwestern suburbs seeing some slick spots. Confidence: Low

Friday may find a few lingering bits of light snow (west to north) or rain/snow mix (central to east and south) in the morning, but the system moves away fairly quickly, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies and afternoon highs in the low to middle 40s again (still colder than normal). Friday night remains mostly cloudy with temperatures only dropping to the upper 20s and low 30s. Confidence: Low-medium.

Weekend weather looks gradually warmer each day with dry conditions and partly (Saturday) to mostly sunny (Sunday) skies. Highs on Saturday roll through the middle 40s with Sunday highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. A few clouds around Saturday night with even a few snow or rain showers possible with lows in the 30s. Confidence: Medium

A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.

3/10 (↑): Probably a “5” at Dulles, but still tricky for the city.