11:30 a.m. update: Models since early this morning – more or less -continue to suggest the worst weather associated with Tropical Storm Hermine stays a good deal east of D.C. this weekend. We will have a detailed update on what to expect locally and at regional beaches by early this afternoon.
Original update from 5 a.m.
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
6/10: Welcome meteorological fall; a few showers today are not bad at all, compared to *possible* weekend squall.
Today: Partly cloudy, scattered showers, thunder possible. Highs: 82-86
Tonight: Showers end early with overnight clearing. Lows: 61-67
Tomorrow: Mostly sunny, breezy. Highs: 78-82
View the current weather conditions at The Washington Post headquarters.
FORECAST IN DETAIL
A cold front triggers some showers today and then pushes beautiful fall-like conditions into the area Friday. But Tropical Storm Hermine could still wreak havoc this weekend. Heavy rains and gusty winds are looking more likely for Saturday on the East Coast beaches and depending on the track could still extend the edge of this system into our area. Hopefully we dodge the worst of it but keep in touch of upcoming refinements.
Today (Thursday): Clouds are numerous this morning and a line of showers (with maybe a little thunder) is likely to move through. A few t’storms may also pop up in the afternoon. Intervals of sunshine are possible in between as temps heat to the mid-80s. It’s still somewhat humid until drier air finally begins to filter in this evening. Winds are light until late in the day, picking up then from the north. Confidence: Medium
Tonight: Any lingering showers should die out by sunset if not before as northerly breezes pick up and push drier air into the area. Skies clear overnight. Lows fall to the 60s. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow (Friday): A fine fall specimen of a day is on tap with baby blue skies, low humidity and highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Breezes are fairly brisk from the north, so no jokes about it being the calm before the storm. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Breezes gradually shift to come from the east overnight and high clouds are on the increase. Lows fall to the low-to-mid 60s. Confidence: Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Saturday starts out with increasing clouds, strengthening easterly winds and building humidity. The exact track of Hermine will play a huge role in how the day plays out. Some models support outer bands of showers reaching the area mid-morning and increasing in frequency and intensity during the afternoon and evening. Northeast winds are likely to be 10-20 mph but could gust to 30 mph or higher.
Potentially heavy rains from the system could total several inches but with recent track shifts farther to the east that looks more likely for the beaches rather than the immediate metro area. If the track shifts any further east, the weekend outlook could improve rather significantly for areas inland. Daytime highs are in the 70s and are unlikely to fall much overnight. Confidence: Low
Again this is a tricky forecast to say the least, but for now, windy and showery conditions are still possible to start the day Sunday. The storm looks like it has a hard time pushing north and this could keep showers, albeit lessening in intensity, through the afternoon. But if the storm takes a more easterly track, the day could end up quite nice. Temperatures remain in the 70s. Showers are currently expected to taper off overnight and winds gradually subside with lows in the 60s. Confidence: Low
Labor Day (Monday) may see skies partially clear — assuming what remains of Hermine pulls away (which is no guarantee) — but winds may still be slow to die down. Highs are expected to peak in the low-to-mid 80s. Confidence: Low-Medium