For snow lovers in Washington, the situation is bad. Historically bad. And it may not improve, at least through the end of February.
Just 1.4 inches of snow has fallen this winter, which ties as eighth lowest on record this deep into the winter, dating to 1884.
If no more snow accumulates for the rest of the winter, the 1.4 inches would rank as third lowest ever recorded — behind only the winters of 1972-73 and 1997-98, when just 0.1 inches fell.
Washington’s prime window for snow events — which runs from late January to mid-February — is about over. Temperatures over Presidents’ Day weekend, when major snowstorms have buried the region in past years, are forecast to soar into the 60s.
No accumulating snow potential appears on the horizon. Outlook maps for the next two weeks are filled with red in the eastern United States, signifying a high likelihood of warmer-than-normal air.
National Weather Service’s 6-10 day temperature outlook:
National Weather Service’s eight-14 day temperature outlook:
Model forecasts show highs in the Washington region primarily in the 50s and 60s, with low temperatures above freezing starting this weekend and lasting through the end of the month:
GFS model ensemble 16-day temperature outlook:
European model ensemble 15-day temperature outlook:
Essentially, the chances for meaningful snow for the rest of February are very low. They’re not quite zero, as temperature forecasts beyond seven to 10 days become less reliable. But the current forecasts are pretty bleak if you like snow.
Is there hope for any snow in March? It’s too soon to say.
D.C. averages 1.3 inches of snow in March and, every once in a great while, a big storm strikes. Both 2014 and 2015 featured above-normal snowfall in March, tallying 12.7 and 4.9 inches. But in three of the past six years, 0.3 inches or less now fell. The month is a total wild card.