Rain totals as of noon Friday
DCA — 1.04 inches
IAD — 1.73 inches
BWI — 0.56 inches
The dry period should last through late afternoon. As of noon, showers could be seen on radar to the south, but they’ve been slow to creep north. My best estimate on arrival time is around 5 p.m.
In terms of timing, the forecast is holding steady. Rain is likely through early afternoon Saturday and should be tapering off by late Saturday afternoon. Clouds and generally damp weather will persist into the evening, but skies are going to clear out for Sunday (but it’ll be windy!).
The forecast models have been wavering back and forth on exactly how heavy the Friday night-Saturday morning rain will be. It looks like models are leaning toward more than they were Wednesday.
Both the GFS and the high-res NAM are pumping out around one inch in the 24 hours between Friday and Saturday afternoon. Since this is a coastal storm, larger rain totals are going to rack up in the eastern suburbs. The Eastern Shore, Delaware and New Jersey look like they’re going to get 1.5 to 2 inches of rain.
The model animation below gives us an idea of what the radar is going to look like in this next storm. This isn’t going to be exactly what happens, but it’s a good approximation that may help you make some final decisions about your weekend plans.