We’ve settled into a very typical midsummer weather pattern that features hot, moderately humid afternoons and occasionally a late-day storm. We’re stuck with this pattern through Friday or Saturday with perhaps a brief break in the pattern sometime next weekend, when the heat may ease a bit. There’s still no sign of any reliable, soaking rain — so you’ll need to run your sprinklers occasionally.
Today (Monday): Take Sunday and, more or less, hit the repeat button. We’ll have lots of sunshine interspersed with some clouds, especially in the afternoon. High temperatures should reach the low 90s in most spots, with light winds from the west. Humidity levels are moderate as dew points hover within a few degrees of 60. Confidence: High
Tonight: It’s a pretty nice summer evening as temperatures slowly fall back through the 80s. Humidity levels are manageable and overnight lows slip back into the upper 60s in our cooler areas to the low-to-mid-70s downtown. Confidence: High
Tomorrow (Fourth of July): A weak cold front pushing south through the region dies out in central Virginia. It’s close enough to generate a few clouds and the outside chance of a few storms in the late afternoon and early-evening hours. Chances are that most activity stays south and southwest of the District, but I can’t totally rule out a passing shower or storm in the city and areas to the north. It’s hot and moderately humid, with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: By sunset, any widely scattered storms should fade away and most fireworks should be in the clear to proceed. Through 11 p.m., temperatures slowly fall back through the 80s. Overnight, under partly cloudy skies, lows range from the upper 60s to low 70s (suburbs to city) Confidence: Medium-High
Both Wednesday and Thursday are a lot like the days preceding it– bringing a mix of sun and clouds, moderate to high humidity, and highs near 90. Afternoon-evening storm chances are low, generally 20 percent or so. Overnight periods should be tranquil, with lows within a few degrees of 70. Confidence: Medium-High
Friday and Saturday may bring the week’s best chances for late-day storms, but they’re not a given. The balance of both of these days should resemble the preceding days with partly sunny skies and highs near 90. The chance of storms both days is in the 30 to 50 percent range, highest in our north and western areas Friday, and south and east areas Saturday. Lows are near 70. Confidence: Medium
High pressure should build back into the region Sunday, drawing in somewhat cooler and less humid air from the north. Under partly sunny skies, highs are likely to be in the mid-80s. Confidence: Medium