Video from Brickell, Miami shows scenes before and after Hurricane Irma struck. (Zoeann Murphy/The Washington Post)

(This post, originally published Sunday, was updated Monday afternoon. The latest information from the National Hurricane Center and a new model projection is included.)

As what’s left of Irma lingers over the Southeast, another hurricane, Jose, has a message for residents along the U.S. East Coast: Don’t forget about me just yet.

Jose, a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, is currently located about 300 miles north of the Turks and Caicos islands, steadily moving toward the north at 9 mph. Monday night, the storm is expected to make a turn toward the northeast.

However, starting Tuesday, Jose is expected to embark upon a slow clockwise loop lasting into Friday. By Friday morning, despite several days of movement, the National Hurricane Center expects Jose to be only about 150 miles from its present position and somewhat closer to the Bahamas and U.S. East Coat.


(National Hurricane Center)

A complicated high-altitude environment over the Atlantic Ocean is what is causing Jose to wobble around the Atlantic.

The storm’s current motion eventually would allow the storm to curve out to sea in a solution most models were showing just a few days ago. However, the sprawling high pressure that brought the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast such gorgeous weather over the weekend is about to get in Jose’s way.


The forecast for Tuesday morning shows that high pressure (black circle) will move offshore and prevent Jose from escaping out to sea. Via OPC

Unable to move to the north and restricted from moving to the east by a developing upper-level high pressure, Jose should have no choice but make this loop between Bermuda and the southeast U.S.

Jose’s intensity is predicted to wane and then wax during this journey. The end result is that, by Saturday, the National Hurricane Center expects the storm to be only slightly weaker than it is now, with peak winds of 90 mph.

By next weekend, Jose’s future becomes cloudier. The position of the jet stream as well as the size and scope of the pressure systems over the Atlantic that far into the future are hard to resolve.

Most models currently project the storm to get picked up by the jet stream and carried northward parallel to the East Coast, but offshore. A few, however, suggest the storm could clip the coastline.


Group of simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Monday morning. Each color strand represents a different model simulation with slight tweaks to initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident but they diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line is the average of all of the European model simulations, while the blue is the average of all the American model simulations.(StormVistaWxModels.com)

Those of us along the East Coast will need to keep an eye on Jose. It’s always a bit dangerous having a hurricane hanging around, and given the propensity for this particular storm to buck forecast trends, Jose is certainly worthy of the attention.

(Jason Samenow contributed to this post)