(NASA)

Jose has weakened, barely hanging on to hurricane status. By the weekend, it is expected to meander into a menacing position between Bermuda and the Bahamas.

But our latest model forecasts suggest that it should remain far enough off the East Coast to not be a threat next week. Should being the operative word.

At 5 p.m., Jose was drifting eastward at 7 mph, about 640 miles north-northwest of San Juan. Little change in strength is expected through Friday as it makes almost a complete loop.


(National Hurricane Center)

By the Friday, however, the storm is expected to pick up speed and turn to the northwest — into a position close enough to the coast of the Carolinas to make people a little nervous.

Models forecast extending from Sunday into next week have some good news, though. They project that the jet stream will pick Jose up and sweep it northward parallel to the East Coast, but at a safe enough distance that it should avoid any encounter with land. Compared to the models we looked at Monday, the storm track has shifted farther offshore.


Group of simulations from American (blue) computer model from Tuesday morning. Each strand represents a different simulation with slight tweaks to initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident but they diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The bold blue line is the average of all the American model simulations.(StormVistaWxModels.com)

But just a slight shift in its course to the west could bring the storm perilously close to the coastline.

So for now, it looks like we should be okay. But keep watching with us.