10:55 p.m. update: Snow is rarely simple around here. Tonight’s GFS model, just in, reminds us why. As CWG’s Jason Samenow said in e-mail, “underwhelming.” There’s just not a lot there on this run. It’s likely the driest and least interesting of its own self going back several runs.
The issues for snow lovers are several on the GFS. It doesn’t drop much precipitation at all until mid-morning, and when it does, there’s not a lot to it. This air mass is cold, but we’ll still need sustained snow to get it to reach potential. For now, this run is something of an outlier, but it is a reminder not to focus only on the high end of forecasts. In other words, one inch is certainly still in play as an option.
We’ll be back early in the morning, or if something important pops up.
9:45 p.m. update: We’re increasing our totals somewhat, given the potential for a period of heavier snow during the day on Saturday. This update is basically adding one inch on top of our earlier high-side expectations area wide. Our confidence in the forecast has also increased overall.
There is still some difference in weather modeling as to when snow starts locally. Will it be near dawn, or a few hours later? In this case, the timing itself should not be a deal maker or breaker. We have higher confidence in a period of snow that is likely to readily accumulate by mid-morning or so. Snow is likely to persist well into the afternoon. If it’s not snowing when you wake up, that doesn’t mean it won’t later.
Some flakes may begin making it into southern parts of our area over the next few hours. As always, we love to know what you do about what’s happening in your neighborhood. We’ll be watching the comments.
8:20 p.m. update: There’s not a whole lot going on out there this evening, as expected. That’ll change, but not until near or after midnight and toward dawn in much of the local area.
A train of moisture from the Gulf Coast to just off southern New England remains to the southeast of our area. Snow totals continue to pile up in places well south of here, like Atlanta. And it’s coming down much closer as well, as seen near the Maryland/Delaware border on the Eastern Shore.
As we get later into the night, the precipitation to the south will start to come north. Over the next few hours, it seems any accumulating snow will be in far southern Maryland or farther south and east. As we get toward 10 p.m. to midnight, we may begin to see some flakes approach the southern part of the area, although they are likely to be light and perhaps inconsequential to start.
We’ll check back in after looking over some of the newest weather models and other data, somewhere around 10:30 p.m. or so.
From 5:10 p.m….
Today felt like a day before snow. Clouds were thickening and lowering, and skies were steel gray throughout. Temperatures only managing to make it to the near 40 to low-40s zone are a good bit below normal for the date. While we remain rather tranquil into the evening other than perhaps a few lonely flakes locally, our weather goes downhill late tonight. I’d plan on making Saturday a “hang out near home” kind of day, although hopefully roads won’t end up too bad.
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Through Tonight: We’ll watch snow creep this way from the south this evening, although its northern progress has mainly stalled for the time being. Snow likes to try to come in earlier than forecast, although I would not expect much locally until after midnight. Even by sunrise, while snow should be into much of the area, accumulation should be light around here, with perhaps a few inches already across southern Maryland. Lows are mostly in the upper-20s and lower-30s.
View the current weather conditions at The Washington Post.
Tomorrow (Saturday): Snow persists in the morning, and perhaps through much or all of the day. It won’t come down steady the whole time, but it’s in no hurry to leave either. There could be some heavier bands around as well, especially in the midday. By the time it’s winding down in the evening, a few inches are possible across the entire region, with the heaviest totals expected to be south and east of D.C. Temperatures probably don’t move too much, particularly if it snows most of the day. Highs near freezing to the mid-30s seem a good bet.
Sunday: Coming off a hard freeze overnight, early morning temperatures in the mid-20s to near 30 promise to keep some icy spots going early Sunday, at least until the sun is up. There should be quite a bit of dripping noise by midday and afternoon as highs rise to the upper-30s and low-40s. We’ll also need to watch for some refreeze again after dark.
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