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FORECAST IN DETAIL
We’re looking at a few significant swings in our weather through the holiday weekend. First off, we’re cooler today, although not too chilly. Tomorrow is even colder though, before a warming trend begins Friday and peaks Saturday with highs in the 60s. Cold air rushes back in by Christmas Day, when highs may reach only the 40s.
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Today (Wednesday): High pressure building into our area from the Great Lakes should help keep a storm system tracking east across southern Virginia and the Carolinas from making it into our area, although areas far south of the District toward Fredericksburg could get clipped with a light shower or two. Otherwise we’re partly cloudy and cooler than yesterday, but not too chilly, with highs near 50 to the low 50s, and winds from the northwest around 10 mph. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: A light but steady breeze from the north holds in the colder air. So with gradually clearing skies, we’ll see lows down to the mid-20s to low 30s. Confidence: High
Tomorrow (Thursday): High pressure should provide partly to mostly sunny skies. But the air mass is still a rather cool one. That means highs mainly in the mid-40s, with light winds. Confidence: Medium-High
Tomorrow night: Clouds may start to increase again Thursday night as high pressure starts to move away. But we should stay dry with lows near 30 to the mid-30s. Confidence: Medium-High
A LOOK AHEAD
Could see an isolated shower Friday morning, with highs heading up into the 50s. But that’s just the appetizer to what looks like a very warm Saturday with highs in the 60s. Showers are possible Saturday, or they could largely hold off until Saturday night — it all depends on the timing of an approaching cold front. Sunday highs probably make it back up to near 50, with a chance of scattered showers. Confidence: Low-Medium
It does look increasingly likely the cold front will make it through the area by Monday (Christmas Day). How strongly the colder air pushes in behind the front is still uncertain, but our best guess right now is highs in the 40s, with perhaps even a chance of a Christmas Day snow shower. Confidence: Low
SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least 1 inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
1/10 (→): Cold enough for snow by Christmas Day and beyond, but so far nothing for snow lovers to get too excited about.