American (GFS model forecasts some light snow passing through Tuesday evening.)

We’ve had a hard time managing more than a light coating of snow in the array of weather systems we’ve experienced so far this winter. The next one forecast to influence the region Tuesday and Wednesday appears no different.

On Friday, it seemed as if it had the most snow potential so far this season, but model forecasts have since backed off some. We still have a chance of snow, but substantial amounts have become less likely.

“I do think it is likely we see snow Tuesday or Wednesday and some light to moderate accumulations are possible but it doesn’t look like a biggy,” said Wes Junker, Capital Weather Gang’s winter weather expert.

Models are now projecting a weaker disturbance passing too far to the north for significant snowfall. Some of Friday’s forecasts dug the disturbance well to the south, spurring a coastal storm off the South Carolina coast — drawing moisture off the Atlantic.

Saturday’s model consensus suggests the development of any coastal storm is more likely to occur off the Northeast coast, too far north to affect our region.

But the models do suggest the disturbance zipping by and the associated cold front may produce a period of light snow some time between late Tuesday and early Wednesday, with the exact timing to be determined.

It’s too soon to forecast amounts, but this has the look of a dusting to two inches kind of event. The chance of at least an inch is about 30 percent.

Of course, the models could still shift, so we’ll continue to monitor the snow potential through the holiday weekend.