* Winter weather advisory 9 p.m. Tuesday to 9 a.m. Wednesday | SchoolCast and FedCast *

10:30 p.m. update

For a lot of the D.C. metro region, this event has all the hallmarks of a bust. The snow is drying out as it works toward the metro region with only some very light activity well north and northwest of the Beltway. Also, because it isn’t snowing temperatures are above freezing in most locations – meaning if and when flakes fall, they will melt initially until temperatures fall back some, further limiting accumulation prospects.

Finally, model information suggests very little if any snow will fall as the front comes through over the next few hours. Our next and last chance of snow with this event would come in the predawn hours as the upper level disturbance passes by – but models show most of the snow associated with it passing to our south. Our far southern areas like Stafford County, Charles County and down to around Fredericksburg have the best chance of getting dusted by this batch; maybe a little creeps north up toward the District but it shouldn’t amount to much if anything.

The bottom line is that we expect little or no accumulation overnight; and some areas may be hard pressed to see any snow at all. But do check conditions before heading out in the morning as a few areas could still get a light coating.

8:30 p.m. update

Radar shows some light snow advancing east through Frederick County, Md. and into Loudoun County. We expect some patchy light snow or flurries to gradually advance east toward the rest of the metro region over the next few hours, but we’re not expecting it to amount to a lot. Based on radar trends and short-term modeling, places north and northwest of Interstate 70 between Frederick and Baltimore have the best chance of measurable snow. Much more than a coating to the south may be tough, but we’ll keep watching how this all evolves.

Original post from 4:45 p.m.

We saw a brief thaw today as temperatures reached up to around 40 ahead of a little weather system moving through the region. Tonight’s snow risk isn’t a huge one, but we all know it doesn’t take much around here. Fortunately, for travel concerns, this one is near the low end when it comes to impacts. Most of the snow will be out of here by the time we are out the door tomorrow, but we’ll have some cold reinforcements in its place.

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Through tonight: Snow that has been to the northwest of our area will only very slowly advance east this evening, and it might not be much as it gets here. I think we will make it through the commute locally without any snow falling, although later it may impinge on far west and northwest spots. Any snowflakes that mean anything should hold off until later evening or the overnight in the immediate area. While we’re sticking with the earlier forecast, we don’t believe there is much, if any, risk of a boom anymore. A dusting seems like the best bet locally, although anywhere steady snow is sustained could see more. Lows will range from near 20 in the cold spots to the mid-and-upper 20s in the city.

View the current weather conditions at The Washington Post.

Tomorrow (Wednesday): Much of the light to very light snow activity should be moving off to the southeast as we get past sunrise. There is some chance remnant flakes could affect the morning commute, and a few icy spots from overnight are possible. Plan on needing some extra time to get where you’re going. Breaks in the clouds may show up during the morning, but anything substantial could hold off until later in the day. It’s a cold one, with highs mainly in the upper 20s to low 30s. Winds are out of the northwest around 15 to 20 mph, with stronger gusts.

A runner does laps around a partly frozen Constitution Gardens Lake on Tuesday in Washington. Snow is predicted in the area early Wednesday morning. (Photo by Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

See Matt Rogers’s forecast through the weekend. And if you haven’t already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter and Instagram. For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock.

January thaw? We saw a few very warm days last week, but the month has been mostly quite cold. Through Monday, the D.C. area was running 6.9 degrees below normal for the month! But it looks like we’re in for a sustained mild spell. It’s not necessarily a heat wave, but it should get monthly temperature numbers headed back up at least a little bit as we close out January.

European ensemble forecast for the next two weeks for D.C. (wx.graphics)

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