11:10 a.m. update: While sunshine is dominant in the District and to the north so far today, a band of clouds overspread southern parts of the region and is in no hurry to get out of here just yet. Unfortunately for those folks, the mostly sunny forecast isn’t going so well. The northern edge hasn’t shifted much, but there is some chance it could try to edge north with time. Unless the clouds dissipate, there is a chance this lasts most or all of the day.
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
7/10: Nicer than yesterday, and it’s the weekend! Lots of sun and not a lot of wind.
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs: Upper 40s to lower 50s.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows: Mid-20s to lower 30s.
Tomorrow: Partly cloudy. Highs: Near 50.
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FORECAST IN DETAIL
Considering a potential winter storm is about two days away from when it might begin to affect the area, there are still quite a few unknowns. While the degree of uncertainty is unusual this close in, we seem to always be dealing with unknowns around here. What I do know is that this weekend will be very enjoyable if you’re planning on being outside.
Today (Saturday): Get outside! It’s on the cool side of normal for the time of year, but the sun is increasingly strong, and there’s lots of it. Winds aren’t too bad either, out of the northwest about 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures head toward or past 50 in most spots. Confidence: High
Tonight: Skies remain mostly clear into the night. We may see some clouds by sunrise, although the storm system we’re watching has slowed a bit, so maybe not. Lows range from about 25 in the coldest spots to near or just above freezing in the city. Confidence: High
Tomorrow (Sunday): With the slowing of the storm system we’ve been watching, the good news is that tomorrow is looking increasingly pleasant. I think we’ll see clouds increase with time, but we may end up with at least partial sunshine for most of the day. Not too unlike today, really. Highs should end up within a few degrees of 50, and winds are light. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Clouds increase through the night. At this point it seems as though we might stay dry, but it’s probably wise to introduce a chance of snow showers or light snow by the pre-dawn hours. Low temperatures are in the mid-20s to low 30s. Confidence: Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Light precipitation wants to move into the area near and after sunrise Monday. It’s probably in the form of snow, but if it’s light and late enough it could include rain.
Snow may increase in intensity for a time during the day, possibly significantly should the storm track close enough to us. As Capital Weather Gang regulars will know, living on the edge isn’t easy. For now, the consensus would favor a light event mainly after sunrise. If that’s the case, impacts should be relatively minimal. If the storm does track close enough, and there is still time for it to trend toward us (or away from us!), we could see more in the way of an impact. Even in that scenario, it would probably take intense snow for a prolonged period to cause major daytime road problems. Highs are in the 30s to near 40. Perhaps only near or just above freezing should it snow a lot. Confidence: Medium
Our storm exits to the east overnight and into early Tuesday. By the time the sun rises, we should be either quite clear or headed that way. Winds may kick up a bit, depending on how strong the offshore storm gets. High temperatures are near 50.
SNOW POTENTIAL INDEX
A daily assessment of the potential for at least an inch of snow in the next week, on a 0-10 scale.
5/10 (→): Still on the edge of the Sunday night/Monday storm. This could quickly jump up or down today, but not enough has changed to alter our outlook for now.