1:30 p.m. update: Temperatures have now dropped to near 50 across most of the metro area, with upper 40s to the north and east and low 50s to the south and west. Scattered showers are likely during the afternoon. Hard to believe we were in the 80s yesterday.

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the days weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

6/10: Tricky temperature forecast but most should at least make the 60s, with rain probably not too disruptive until late in the day.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Isolated to scattered showers and storms. Highs: Upper 50s to low 70s.
Tonight: Rain, heavy at times. Lows: 50s.
Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy, lingering showers possible. Highs: Near 60.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

Cooler air approaching from our northeast makes todays temperature forecast a tricky one. The rain forecast isnt a cakewalk, either, although theres a chance were able to squeeze in many of those outdoor activities. A juicy cold front comes through tonight with heavier rain and possibly some strong thunderstorms. That sets our temperatures back before they rebound by midweek.

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Today (Sunday): We find ourselves in the battleground between yesterday’s warmth and a “backdoor” cold front trying to move in from the northeast. That makes the temperature forecast a low-confidence one. Most spots inside the Beltway should get into the 60s, but as you head north and east of the Beltway, temperatures may get stuck in the 50s to near 60 with a cool breeze. Meanwhile areas south and west of the Beltway could climb into the 70s. A few isolated showers are possible during the morning, with a chance of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon. (I wouldnt cancel afternoon outdoor activities, but keep an eye on radar.) Confidence: Low-Medium

Tonight: The forecast gets a little less complicated tonight — it’s going to rain. As a cold front sweeps through, scattered evening showers turn into steadier rain after midnight. It’s likely heavy at times, culminating in a potentially intense pre-dawn band of thunderstorms with strong wind gusts possible. Most spots should see overnight lows fall into the 50s. Confidence: Medium

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Tomorrow (Monday): Showers are most numerous in the early morning before we trend drier throughout the day, although a few lingering showers remain possible into the afternoon. Skies stay on the cloudier side thanks to upper-level energy overhead. Temperatures look to stall in the upper 50s and low 60s. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: We may get a few peeks at the stars as clouds diminish somewhat through the night. The real story, though, is the return of colder air, with overnight lows in the mid-30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium-High


Spring colors near the Washington Monument yesterday. (angela n. via Flickr)

A LOOK AHEAD

An upper-level area of low pressure may keep some clouds around on Tuesday. Well call it partly cloudy and quite cool, with highs only the 50s and a gusty breeze from the northwest. We cool down nicely again on Tuesday night, with mostly clear skies and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Confidence: Medium

All is well as we head into Wednesday. Despite the cool start, temperatures rebound by afternoon thanks to winds from the south bringing back our spring warmth. Plenty of sun does its magic as highs reach near 70 degrees. We could see a few clouds later in the day with a cold front approaching, but all in all, its a winner! Confidence: Medium