8:05 a.m. update: Heavier rain has been focused south and east of the city so far this morning. The overnight and early morning models suggest this may be the case overall today. That said, we will need to watch how it plays out a bit before totally agreeing with that idea. Here’s the most recent GFS models, which highlights the idea well. Some of the more recent HRRR short term model runs have an even sharper contrast from northwest to southeast.
From 5:00 a.m…
* Flood watch in effect for our entire region until Saturday morning *
TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.
2/10: Nary a break in rain. Even heavier afternoon rains/storms possible. Not-feeling-it Friday. Stay safe and never cross any path that’s flooded!
Today: Very rainy. Windier with time. Highs: Mid-60s, slowly falling.
Tonight: Lighter evening rain. Rumbles overnight? Lows: Upper 50s to low 60s.
Saturday: Still wet but slow tapering is possible. Highs: Mid-70s to near 80.
Sunday: Partly sunny. Shower/storm chance. Highs: Mid-to-upper 80s.
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FORECAST IN DETAIL
Keep your umbrella and rain jackets at the ready. Rain won’t wane until perhaps late tomorrow. Please don’t cross any floodwaters in the coming days. Turn around, don’t drown. You’ll be rewarded with sunshine returning a bit on Sunday and into next week — but we may stay steamy and sometimes stormy.
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Today (Friday): Assume any break you may experience in the fairly constant drizzle, rain and showers is a lucky one. We’ve got rounds of heavy rain in as soon as morning. It may turn steadier with time, and we could perhaps see thunderstorms as well. An inch or three on top of what we’ve seen means flooding is possible. Morning temperatures may be our highest and steadiest of the day, in the mid-60s or so. As east-northeasterly winds gust to around 20 mph in the afternoon, conditions turn clammier and cooler, perhaps upper 50s by sunset. Confidence: Medium-High
Tonight: Shower frequency and intensity could diminish a little bit into the evening, but still carry that umbrella at all times. Pockets of heavier rain and flooding may still linger, especially if another potential batch of stormier weather comes through the region in the early morning hours. Upper 50s could be our coolest temperatures during evening hours, perhaps slowly rising back into the low 60s for many of us before sunrise. Easterly winds slowly wane from gusty 20 mph in the evening toward 10 mph before sunrise. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow (Saturday): Morning could be wettest, but showers and even some heavier rain periods (thunderstorms too) are possible for most of the day. It’s possible we see a tapering — perhaps even some moments of dryness — near sunset. A slow taper. Please keep that umbrella with you. Mid-70s to near 80 is possible for high temperatures. Southerly breezes around 10 mph are possible by afternoon, and help pump in some mugginess. Confidence: Medium
Tomorrow night: Showers should be more isolated, but with a quick passing thundershower still possible, light-rain coats or umbrellas aren’t a bad idea. Muggy air, substantial cloud cover, and steady southwesterly breezes prevent temperatures from dipping below 70 degrees downtown. Perhaps some mid-60s well outside of the Beltway. Confidence: Medium
A LOOK AHEAD
Sunday: While passing showers and some afternoon thunderstorms can’t be ruled out, we finally see breaks in the clouds with some decent brightness. Southwesterly winds bring us steamy, tropical air with uncomfortable high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. Confidence: Medium
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with a couple of showers and even an early-morning thundershower possible. We think widely scattered in nature. Perhaps no umbrella needed if you feel like living dangerously! Muggy low temperatures only slowly settle into the Mid-60s to around 70. Confidence: Medium
Periodic clouds, showers, and afternoon storms could still pepper our Monday and Tuesday next week. Sunshine is out at times, so don’t fret that it will be overcast (unlikely). Isolated showers are possible most anytime; but, as for thunderstorms, those may not percolate until afternoon as we reach toward semi-steamy high temperatures in the low-to-mid 80s. Confidence: Medium