“Rock Creek” taken May 12. The water is getting warmer with this forecast. (Edward Wood via Flickr)

* Code Orange Air Quality Alert today — potentially unhealthy for sensitive groups *

TODAY’S DAILY DIGIT
A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

8/10: Kinda hot BUT a holiday weekend Friday, #priorities amiright? It’s our last mostly sunny, definitely dry weather day for a while.

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Sunny, a little more humid. Highs: Mid-80s to around 90.
Tonight: Mainly clear. Getting muggier. Lows: Upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday: PM showers/storms possible. Highs: Mid-to-upper 80s.
Sunday: Showers/storms possible. Highs: Low-to-mid 80s.

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FORECAST IN DETAIL

Prefer sunny, dry weather? Enjoy today. Sure, a tad muggy, but still pretty nice compared with our more humid feel as the weekend wears on. As the atmospheric moisture increases, so do our chances for showers and storms. If you can remain nimble and flexible with a few downpours (tune to @capitalweather on Twitter) you should be able to fit in the majority of your outdoor plans this holiday weekend.

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Today (Friday): Getting hot, but decent enough, with mostly sunny skies and refreshing breezes from the south-southwest at 10-15 mph by afternoon. The humidity is more noticeable today, but not overly bothersome with highs in the mid-80s to around 90. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clear skies until very late night when a few clouds roll in. Be sure to catch the waxing moon during the evening. Mugginess continues to rise thanks to a light wind from the south. Upper 60s to low 70s may be the best “refreshment” we can do, just before sunrise. Confidence: Medium-High

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for the latest updates. For related traffic news, check out Dr. Gridlock. Keep reading for the forecast through into next week.

Tomorrow (Saturday): Benign enough at the start, but the atmosphere continues to moisten, thanks to 5-10 mph breezes from the southwest. This means only partly sunny skies, and palpable mugginess as dew points reach the upper 60s to near 70, with highs managing the mid-to-upper 80s. The best chance for showers and storms comes midafternoon into evening. The exact timing is a little unclear, so we’ll keep an eye on things for you. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Showers and storms remain a risk through mid-evening. The overnight should be mainly dry with mild lows again only getting down to the upper 60s to low 70s. Can’t rule out a pre-dawn downpour or rumble of thunder — with any luck it won’t wake us up. Confidence: Medium

A LOOK AHEAD

Sunday: Clouds may dominate more often than not, as well as muggy air. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should stay mainly hit-or-miss but afternoon hours have the highest chance of seeing a downpour. Remember to head indoors when thunder roars. We’ll be watching radar again with you while you try to grill! Highs likely make it into the low-to-mid 80s. Confidence: Medium

Sunday night: Rain chances may stick around into the evening and overnight. Even if we seen an evening lull, you may want to keep the windows closed in case rain returns later. With such muggy air and cloudy skies, we again are on-repeat for lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Confidence: Medium

The pattern remains mostly unchanged Memorial Day (Monday) and Tuesday, with highs in the 80s with a mix of sun and clouds, plus the chance of a few showers and storms. The heaviest should avoid the core DMV area, as it appears now. And hopefully any we do see are of the hit-or-miss variety that don’t mess too much with outdoor plans. But we’ll have to watch it as we get closer. Confidence: Low-Medium

Beachcast

New Jersey beaches: Mainly sunny Friday/Saturday, with highs around 80 to low 80s and lows in the mid-60s. Mostly cloudy Sunday/Monday with highs in the low-to-mid 70s and lows in the mid-60s. Showers/storms possible late Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning, then again Sunday afternoon through early morning Monday. Water temps around 60 to mid-60s, with 2-to-4-foot waves.

Delaware/Maryland beaches: More sun than clouds Friday with highs near 80. Saturday highs again near 80 with increasing clouds, and shower/storm chances increasing late Saturday afternoon and night. Sunday morning/midday may stay dry with highs still near 80, before more shower/storm chances Sunday afternoon into Monday, and Monday highs only in the 70s. Lows in the mid-to-upper 60s throughout. Water temps in the mid-60s to around 70. Waves between 2 to 3 feet.

Virginia/North Carolina beaches: Partly sunny Friday/Saturday, but cloudier Sunday/Monday. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s and lows near 70 to low 70s all weekend. Not too wet but highest rain chances Saturday night, and again Sunday night into Monday (worst beach day, possibly) as moisture streams ahead of a potential tropical storm developing in the Gulf. Water temps in the low-to-mid 70s. Near 2-foot waves. Perhaps 3-foot waves starting Saturday night.