* Flash flood watch from noon through late tonight *

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

2/10: Too much water.


Today: Intermittent downpours, most numerous in the afternoon. Highs: Near 80.
Tonight: Showers and storms, some heavy. Lows: Near 70-75.
Tomorrow: Showers and storms, heavy at times. Highs: Near 80.

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The Washington region transforms into a tropical rain forest for the next several days with drenching downpour after drenching downpour. The problem is that streams are swollen and the ground is saturated from the weekend’s soaking and cannot take on much more water. With the prospect for several inches or more of additional rain and multiday totals over 10 inches, this presents the likelihood of dangerous flooding in some areas. Later this week, rain chances ease some but not entirely.

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Today (Monday): Showers are possible at any time today but are likely to become most numerous and heaviest in the afternoon when thunderstorms are possible. It won’t rain all the time, and the sun may peek out for short intervals, pushing highs up to about 80. Winds are light from the southeast, but locally strong gusts are possible during thunderstorms, which could bring down trees given the saturated ground. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable, but some areas could see up to a few inches in a short amount of time. Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: The feed of tropical moisture does not relent even with the loss of daylight. Occasional showers and storms are possible through the night. With all the moisture in the air, temperatures only slowly fall back through the 70s. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Tuesday): This is the day that models project the most widespread and heaviest rainfall. The rain will come in waves, and some areas could get hit by heavy storms repeatedly, while others remain outside the corridor of torrents. Knowing exactly where the most extreme amounts will occur is not possible to pinpoint, but we suspect some if not many areas will face flooding. Highs are near 80 with light winds from the southeast. Confidence: Medium-High

Tomorrow night: Seriously heavy rain could continue at times through the evening and overnight. Flooding concerns continue as lows settle between 70 and 75. Confidence: Medium-High

A soggy scene, July 21. ( Kevin Wolf via Flickr )


Wednesday should be the last day that we face a significant risk of heavy rainfall and flooding. By late in the day it’s possible that the rain starts to taper off, but confidence is low as to exactly when. Highs are again near 80. There’s a chance of lingering showers overnight, with lows from 70 to 75. Confidence: Medium

National Weather Service rainfall forecast through Wednesday night. (WeatherBell.com)

Thursday and Friday probably turn out to be the week’s driest days, but the air is still muggy so we can’t totally rule out the chance of some showers and thundershowers, especially in the afternoon and evening. We may have a bit more sunshine, boosting high temperatures to 85 to 90. Nighttime lows remain mild in the 70 to 75-degree range. Confidence: Medium

We don’t think the weekend will be a washout, but a front passing through probably will offer the chance of some showers or storms, the exact timing to be determined. Sunday probably has a better chance of rain, especially if the front slows down or stalls, which is a possibility. Mugginess lingers, with highs both days in the mid-80s or so. Confidence: Low-Medium