* Flash flood watch from 3 p.m. through this evening *

A somewhat subjective rating of the day’s weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

3/10: It’s muggy and steamy with too high of a chance for strong and severe storms in the late afternoon into the evening. Another flooding situation may emerge as well.


Today: P.M. strong to severe storms likely. Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s.
Tonight: Downpours may continue until late evening. Lows: Upper 60s to low 70s.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Less muggy. Highs: Mid-80s.
Sunday: Rather cloudy. Isolated rain chance. Highs: Low-to-mid 80s.

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Think happy thoughts to keep our potentially salvageable, moooossstly dry weekend forecast intact. First we have to get through today’s likely strong to severe storms, as heavily saturated soils make trees falling a big worry. Stay weather-aware and check back with us when you can. We’ll keep you updated and give you better estimates of storm intensity and timing as they approach later.

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Today (Friday): Please stay tuned. Strong to severe storms are likely in the afternoon to evening period, with a focus likely on the 4 to 10 p.m. time frame. A cold front is moving toward us, and it’s the trigger. Morning hours should be okay, with partly to mostly sunny skies —  only an isolated morning chance of a quick shower is expected at that point. Clouds build in the afternoon. Storms start moving in from west to east. A saturated ground means trees could fall and more flooding is possible. Downpours may get going by rush hour, unfortunately, although the worst could come on the late side of that close in. Someone could get a lot of rain, too. This was almost a level 2 and may still rise with morning details. Muggy high temperatures should still get into the upper 80s to low 90s (feeling like mid-90s). Confidence: Medium-High

Tonight: Downpours and thunderstorms associated with our cold front may continue their march through the region until late evening. Showers should diminish after midnight, with upper 60s to low 70s possible near dawn. It won’t feel too cool, with muggy dew points only slowly decreasing as light northwesterly breezes usher in drier air. Confidence: Medium-High

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Tomorrow (Saturday): We should see sunshine and a bit less of those humid-feeling, high dew points (sinking into the mid-60s is a start!). A shower can’t be ruled out completely, particularly south and east of D.C., as afternoon clouds bubble up. Just about everyone should get into the mid-80s fairly easily, despite 5-10 mph northwesterly breezes subtly blowing in “cooler” air. Confidence: Medium

Tomorrow night: Breezes calm mostly, and skies should stay fairly clear until nearer dawn. Our drier air does allow temperatures to more easily and effectively cool. Water vapor is a decent insulator and now we have less of it in the air! Mid-60s to about 70 degrees (downtown) may be our low temperature range before dawn. An isolated shower or storm can’t be ruled out, but check back as we get closer. Confidence: Low-Medium


Sunday: Clouds may battle the sunshine somewhat, but we only have the slightest chance of a shower or storm — so that’s good news! Low-to-mid 80s should feel better than Saturday, with even-lower dew points. Perhaps almost “comfortable” near the 60-degree mark! We’ll see if showers and storms want to creep northward into our area, but I’m staying optimistic for now. Confidence: Low-Medium

Sunday night: Early evening may have the highest (but still slight) chance of a shower or storm, especially southern portions of our region. Mugginess ramps up another half-notch overnight. Muggy dew points may return, so you might not want to open those windows overnight while sleeping. Low temperatures may hover in the upper 60s to low 70s, throughout the region. Confidence: Low-Medium

Some clouds and periodic showers or storms stick around for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures should top out in the mid-80s both days, which isn’t too bad for the end of July, but the air likely is a bit close and steamy. A couple of downpours cannot be ruled out roaming the region — we’ll have to wait until we get closer to perhaps get a fix on exact timing of rain bands that might move through. More rain is not what we need. Confidence: Medium