“Lane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours,” the Hurricane Center added. “Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm [sea surface temperatures], and the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this scenario.”
During its closest pass to Hawaii, the Hurricane Center now brings the center of Lane within 250 miles of the southern shore of the Big Island. However, within the storm’s cone of uncertainty (below), the storm’s northern edge is only about 65 miles offshore.
The Hurricane Center says there is up to a 10 percent chance hurricane-force winds buffet the south shores of the Big Island.
Direct impacts like wind and rain are only one aspect of an extreme storm like Lane. Large waves are increasingly likely to batter parts of Hawaii as it passes. The Big Island is set to face the brunt, with swells approaching or surpassing 15 feet possible on its southern and eastern facing shoreline.
The increased swell aspect is a long-duration event, with high wave heights expected from at least Monday through Thursday.
Although both Hector and Lane may be somewhat odd on their own, in many hurricane seasons we see similar weather patterns dominate for much of the summer and fall. The extreme 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a recent example. While any of the mega hurricanes and their tracks may have been peculiar, the unrelenting pattern conducive to the parade of storms remained in place for weeks.
Although Hawaii has been lucky to escape a direct hit from any of these major hurricanes in recent years, it is already seeing higher tides and increased flooding during these events, and it is something we could see from Lane even if it stays well offshore.