This is a 2015 photo, but it’s a pretty accurate representation of what Andrew Luck will look like this week at Colts minicamp. (Grant Halverson/Getty Images)

In January, Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay announced that quarterback Andrew Luck had surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, an injury he had struggled with since 2015. The news was something of a surprise, because even though he was often on the Colts’ injury report with a shoulder problem during the 2016 regular season, he only missed one game — and that was for a concussion. About a month earlier, Irsay had said he didn’t think Luck would need surgery. It was all a little peculiar, but because Irsay said Luck would be ready for the start of the season, everyone pretty much forgot about it.

But now it’s time for the Colts’ mandatory minicamp, and Luck will be kept on the sideline even though reports from January suggested that he would could start throwing again three months after the surgery (in other words, sometime around mid-April). So we’re left to wonder about how Luck is progressing through his rehabilitation.

Does this sound like optimism from Coach Chuck Pagano? No, no it doesn’t.

Pagano added Tuesday that Luck’s role at minicamp would be to “just observe” and that “the next step is getting to the point where he can throw.” Again, this doesn’t sound at all good. Plus, in a story published Monday, Zak Keefer of the Indianapolis Star described Luck as “noticeably thinner,” which is kind of an understatement. Here’s an Instagram from last week:

Keefer talked to a number of shoulder experts who said it wasn’t yet time for the Colts and their fans to panic about their $140 million quarterback. At least not yet. But with training camp starting in about six weeks and the regular season starting six weeks after that, we’re getting to the point where Luck’s shoulder could be a bigger story than it has been previously.