Unless noted, these are taken from the list of prop bets being offered by William Hill’s sportsbooks in Las Vegas. Keep in mind that the numbers involved with some of these bets will change as the bets come in this week.
Patriots under 27 points (-110)
Patriots under 13.5 points in first half (-110)
Highest-scoring half? Second half and overtime (-140)
Will there be a score in the first 5 minutes 30 seconds of the game? No (-140)
Will Patriots score in every quarter? No (-120)
Will Patriots score a touchdown in the first quarter? No (-110)
As Byeweekpicks notes on Twitter, the Eagles have allowed more than 27 points just twice this season: One against the Rams, who had a pretty good offense, and once against the Giants (¯\_(ツ)_/¯). Plus, there’s this: In seven previous Super Bowl appearances, the Bill Belichick Patriots somehow have not scored a single point in the first quarter. Put those facts together and the above bets could be worth considering.
Highest point-scoring quarter. Under 20.5 points (-110)
More from Byeweekpicks: Not counting Week 17, when neither team was playing for anything, the Patriots and Eagles combined to play just 15 quarters this season where the point total went over 20.5 points. That’s out of 136 total quarters.
Eagles team rushing yards. Over 112.5 (-115)
This prop is being offered at Bovada. As noted by Warren Sharp, the Patriots have been susceptible to running plays out of the 11 personnel (in other words, one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers). This season, even when eliminating garbage time plays, they have allowed a 60 percent success rate and 6.6 yards per carry on runs from the 11 personnel; when opponents have deviated from this setup, the Patriots have allowed just a 31 percent success rate and 3.0 yards per carry. Even when New England blew out the Raiders, 33-8, on Nov. 19, Oakland averaged 8.1 yards per carry and had a 75 percent success rate out of the 11 personnel, which it employed on 20 of its 21 rushing attempts. And guess what: The Eagles had the third-most rushing attempts out of the 11 personnel this season, with Jay Ajayi being particularly strong in that setup.
Jay Ajayi over 24.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Patriots struggle to contain pass-catching running backs, allowing 7.5 yards per attempt (31st in the league during the regular season). Ajayi topped 25 receiving yards in both of the Eagles’ playoff games against the Falcons and Vikings, whose defenses ranked seventh and first, respectively, in terms of running back receiving success rate.
Team with most penalty yards. Eagles (-180)
As my numbers-obsessed colleague Neil Greenberg points out, the Patriots have a knack for getting their opponents to commit a bunch of penalties, and it’s such that the heavy -180 juice (wager $180 to win $100) is worth a shot here. New England was awarded 50 first downs via penalty in the regular season, the most in the league, and then six more in the playoffs (tying them with the Vikings). Combining the regular season and the playoffs, the Patriots’ net penalty margin (27) and net penalty yard differential (313) rank second and first, respectively. The Eagles, meanwhile, were one of the most-penalized teams in the league this season.
Total field goals. Under 3.5 (+105)
The Eagles’ opponents made only 1.2 field goals per game this season, tied for fewest in the league. The Patriots tied for fourth at 1.3. They combined to surrender three total field goals in four playoff games. Even in a dome, take the under.