The Washington Post

How far will Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel fall in the NFL draft?

(AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File)

Johnny Manziel may be like Johnny Depp, but at least people want Depp in their movies. It doesn’t appear that Johnny Football has the same desirability among NFL teams.

There are probably seven teams that need quarterbacks — eight if you include the Dallas Cowboys, whose starting quarterback just turned 34 — and by my count not too many sound interested in the Texas A&M quarterback.

The Post Sports Live crew discusses the biggest storylines in the 2014 NFL draft, from whether University of South Carolina's Jadeveon Clowney will be selected first overall to where Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel will be drafted. (Post Sports Live/The Washington Post)

Pick #1: Houston Texans

Texans General Manager Rick Smith knows who he wants, but the organization would be open to trading the first overall pick.

“Maybe we’ll trade down and still get a quarterback that can do the job and get an outstanding defensive player,” Texans owner Bob McNair  said. “It’s an exciting time. Everything’s a moving target. Lot of different pieces.”

If Houston does keep the pick, most mock drafts have them selecting defensive end Jadeveon Clowney from South Carolina.

Pick #3: Jacksonville Jaguars

Former NFL general manager Charley Casserly thinks linebacker Khalil Mack goes to Jacksonville at No. 3.

Pick #4: Cleveland Browns

It was reported that the Browns would take Manziel with the fourth pick.

But then again, maybe not.

That means the Cleveland Browns could decide to take wide receiver Sammy Watkins from ClemsonOr offensive lineman Greg Robinson from Auburn.

Pick #5: Oakland Raiders

Reports are coming from the San Francisco Chronicle that the Raiders aren’t really considering drafting a quarterback with the fifth overall pick.

Pick #8: Minnesota Vikings

Peter King thinks quarterback Blake Bortles of Central Florida is a better fit.

Pick #11: Tennessee Titans

That would leave the Tennessee Titans with the 11th pick and a need at quarterback. Could Manziel fall that far? Should he?

One of the best predictors of future NFL performance for a quarterback is the number of college games started and career completion percentage. That would place a healthy Aaron Murray from Georgia (who suffered a torn ACL near the end of last season) and Alabama’s AJ McCarron ahead of Manziel. Same for top prospects Derek Carr (Fresno State) and Teddy Bridgewater (Louisville).

Rank Player  Career Starts  Comp%
1 Aaron Murray 52 66.9%
2 AJ McCarron 40 69.1%
3 Derek Carr 39 66.7%
4 Teddy Bridgewater 34 68.4%
5 Johnny Manziel 26 68.9%
6 Jimmy Garoppolo 44 62.4%
7 Blake Bortles 27 65.7%
8 Logan Thomas 45 55.6%
9 Zach Mettenberger 25 61.8%
10 Tom Savage 29 56.8%

Pick #16: Dallas Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys will be tempted to take Johnny Football at 16, but owner Jerry Jones has (tried) to put those rumors to bed. “I will go as far as to say it is not our primary goal in the first round to be looking at a quarterback,” he said. “We’ve got a good one.”

Could that mean he falls to 20th (Arizona Cardinals)? Or maybe the Cleveland Browns (at 26th, from Indianapolis) get another shot?

[polldaddy poll=8026946]

Neil Greenberg analyzes advanced sports statistics for the Fancy Stats blog and prefers to be called a geek rather than a nerd.



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