Over his career to date, Stanton has provided the Marlins with 19.5 wins above replacement, which is valued at $93.7 million. In other words, if you were going to replace his performance in free agency and knew you were going to get exactly this level of production, $93.7 million is how much you would have to pay. For that the Marlins paid Stanton slightly over $7.9 million. So already, they are ahead of the curve.
We can either use the standard one marginal win is worth $7 million or that the cost of a marginal win starts at $6 million in 2015 and increases by five percent each year to figure out the value the Marlins can expect to receive from Stanton, including everything he has done year-to-date.
Even if you ignore the value Stanton has provided to date, it still works out for both parties.
If that holds, Stanton will add less than 20 wins above replacement over the life of the contract, which would be more than a third less than what the ZiPS projections are calling for. But those similar players are loose fits, at best, and don’t look like the most probable scenarios.
It’s a lot of money, but it is also a good deal for both Stanton and the Marlins.