Each week, Neil Greenberg makes NFL game predictions based on a multitude of factors that will have an impact on game day. These include efficiency stats such as success rates, yards per play and yards allowed per play, plus points scored based on strength of opponent. Point spreads are the consensus odds from multiple sports books in Vegas.
A team’s win probability is based on applying the model from Wayne Winston’s book “Mathletics” to my own point spread, which is derived in part from the Simple Rating System.
If you’re looking for point-spread trends for this weekend, The Post’s Matt Bonesteel has them here.
Season record against the spread: 122-98-2 (55.0 win percentage)
This week’s best bets:
Atlanta Falcons (+6) @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Atlanta Falcons +6
Win Probability: New Orleans Saints 61.3 percent
According to the Simple Rating System, the Saints are 2.1 points per game worse than league average while the Falcons are 3.1 points per game worse than league average, making it tough to buy the Saints as a six-point favorite, even at home.
Kansas City Chiefs (+3) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs +3
Win Probability: Kansas City Chiefs 56.3 percent
The Chiefs may not be able to generate the same offensive production that the Steelers can, but they can play a better defensive game, and that could be the difference.
Indianapolis Colts (+3) @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +3
Win Probability: Indianapolis Colts 54.3 percent
It is unknown if DeMarco Murray will start on Sunday, but he is such a big part of their offense that if he isn’t 100 percent you have to give the nod to the Colts.
Here are the rest of this week’s picks:
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5
Win Probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 60.0 percent
The Jaguars are the favorite for the first time in 43 games and haven’t covered as a favorite since they played the Colts in Week 17 of the 2012 season. However, the Titans are also not a good football team, scoring the third fewest points per drive (1.3) while allowing the fourth most (2.2). Go with the home team on this one.
San Diego Chargers (+1) @ San Francisco 49ers
Pick: San Diego Chargers +1
Win Probability: San Diego Chargers 51.7 percent
The 49ers have nothing to play for and may see their coach bolt to the college ranks for big money. The Chargers, meanwhile, lost their last two games to the two best teams in the league and could be without their quarterback Philip Rivers.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers, who missed practice Wednesday, is battling a back injury that is bigger than people realize, per league source.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 18, 2014
With so much uncertainty, go with the trend, which has the 49ers 0-4-2 at home against the spread this season.
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -7.5
Win Probability: Philadelphia Eagles 75.6 percent
The Redskins held the Eagles to just 54 rushing yards in their first meeting, so it is tempting to think they can do it again. However, the Redskins are 1-5 against the spread at home this season.
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: Cleveland Browns +3.5
Win Probability: Carolina Panthers 54.3 percent
Cam Newton is back at practice after an automobile accident caused two fractures in his lower back, but it is unlikely he will be under center once the game starts. Either way, the Browns defense is allowing the fifth fewest net yards per pass to opposing quarterbacks (5.7) this season.
Detroit Lions (-9) @ Chicago Bears
Pick: Detroit Lions –9
Win Probability: Detroit Lions 67.5 percent
In the hour I was writing this the line moved the Bears from an eight-point dog to nine. Add to that Jimmy Clausen is 3-7 against the spread as a starter and you have your pick.
Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) @ Houston Texans
Pick: Baltimore Ravens –5.5
Win Probability: Baltimore Ravens 53.7 percent
We won’t know who the Texans’ quarterback will be until kickoff, but whomever it is, he needs to be ready for the Ravens’ ferocious pass rush which is rated as the best in the league by Pro Football Focus.
Minnesota Vikings (+6.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Pick: Miami Dolphins -6.5
Win Probability: Miami Dolphins 75.8 percent
This should be a game won in the trenches, where Miami has the second highest rated pass rush in the league according to the game charters at Pro Football Focus.
New England Patriots (-10) @ New York Jets
Pick: New England Patriots -10
Win Probability: New England Patriots 89.9 percent
Getting 10 points is tempting for a team who out-gained the Patriots by 100 yards on the road earlier in the season and had a game-winning field goal blocked in the final seconds, but don’t buy into the hype. There is a lot at stake for the Patriots who are scoring the second most points per drive (2.6) this season.
Green Bay Packers (-10.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Green Bay Packers -10.5
Win Probability: Green Bay Packers 85.9 percent
This should be a blowout.
New York Giants (+5) @ St. Louis Rams
Pick: St. Louis Rams -5
Win Probability: St. Louis Rams 66.5 percent
Robert Quinn (10 1/2 sacks) and Aaron Donald (eight sacks) will be a handful for the Giants’ offensive line and get enough pressure on Eli manning to make him unsuccessful.
Buffalo Bills (-5.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Pick: Buffalo Bills -5.5
Win Probability: Buffalo Bills 77.8 percent
The last time the Bills were a five-point or more favorite on the road was when they played the Rams in 2008. They covered that game, and should again behind the top-ranked defense per Football Outsider’s Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric.
Seattle Seahawks (-8) @ Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Seattle Seahawks –8
Win Probability: Seattle Seahawks 52.3 percent
Cardinals starting quarterback Ryan Lindley has thrown seven interceptions in his career and zero touchdowns. This week he faces a defense that hasn’t allowed more than 140 yards passing in five straight weeks.
Denver Broncos (-3) @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Denver Broncos -3
Win Probability: Denver Broncos 69.6 percent
The Broncos are running more and the Bengals allow 4.3 yards per carry, the eighth most in the league. So not only will Cincinnati have to deal with Peyton Manning, they will have to find a way to stop C.J. Anderson, who is averaging 4.6 yards per attempt.
Correction: A prior version had the season record against the spread incorrect. This has been fixed.