Wisconsin ended Kentucky’s bid for a perfect season on Saturday, beating the Wildcats 71-64 and earning the right to face off against four-time national champ Duke in Monday night’s title game.

Frank Kaminsky, the 2015 Naismith Men’s College Player of the Year, led the Badgers with 20 points and 11 rebounds while junior forward Sam Dekker added 16 points in the victory.

On the other side of the bracket, two freshmen secured the victory for Duke: Justise Winslow led the Blue Devils with 19 points and Jahlil Okafor had 18 points, 10 of which came in the first half.

The projections at numberFire give Wisconsin a 58 percent chance at cutting down the nets while Pomeroy has the Badgers winning in a squeaker, 70-69. Not even the bookmakers in Vegas are willing to pick a winner — they opened the line at a pick ’em.

There is history on the line for Coach Mike Krzyzewski and Duke, who have never beaten a No. 1 seed to win a national championship:

  • 2010: No. 5 Butler
  • 2001: No. 2 Arizona
  • 1992: No. 6 Michigan
  • 1991: No. 3 Kansas

Scott Eble, senior software engineer at WhatIfSports, ran this game through their simulator and after averaging together the wins and losses, here is how each team can secure a victory:

What a Wisconsin win looks like

The Badgers want more of what we saw in the Final Four game against Kentucky: their best players being their best players, strong three-point shooting and a ton of free throws.

In the simulations where Wisconsin wins, Kaminsky scores 16 points per game on 51.3 percent shooting and Dekker hits 34.2 percent from beyond the arc, but the key may be point guard Bronson Koenig.

Koenig averaged 8.7 points per game and shot 41.3 percent from the field during the 2014-15 regular season, but steps up his game in the Wisconsin victories.

Koenig can get hot from the three-point line, especially at the top of the key and along the right baseline.

And that will help Wisconsin get the added production they need to secure their first national title since 1941.

What a Duke win looks like

Wisconsin shot 39.4 percent on two-point shots when Duke beat them in December, and the simulations have Wisconsin shooting almost as badly in the losses this time around as well.

But a Duke victory requires more than just minimizing Kaminsky and Dekker — at the same time, freshman Grayson Allen needs to be more of a scoring threat.

The six-foot-four guard averaged four points per game, but posts 7.4 points per game in the winning simulations. And he needs to grab more rebounds like this one, without the taunting.

Okafor and Winslow will be front and center, but it will be a role player who gets Coach K his fifth championship title.