Season results: 24-23-1 against the spread; 7-1-1 against the cats
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Winner: Baltimore Ravens 56.9 percent
Pick: Baltimore Ravens –2.5
Baltimore is reeling at 0-3 but it won’t be an easy contest for the Steelers and Le’Veon Bell. The Ravens yield the fourth fewest rushing yards per carry (3.4) and have allowed just one run of more than 20 yards.
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins
Winner: Miami Dolphins 67.0 percent
Pick: Miami Dolphins +1.5
London will be the backdrop for this division matchup, but the Jets coming back to earth last week at home in their loss to the Eagles is concerning. Plus, the Dolphins defense will get back on track against a Jets’ offense that averages 5.9 net yards per pass (24th in league).
Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons
Winner: Atlanta Falcons 53.7 percent
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -6.5
The Falcons rank fourth in drive success rate (76.6 percent), which measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown.
The Texans rank 22nd (68.8 percent).
New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills
Winner: Buffalo Bills 58.8 percent
Pick: New York Giants +5.5
The Bills are in the top 10 for fewest points allowed per trip to the red zone (4.56) but Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. should be able to keep this one close for the Giants.
Those two combined for seven catches for 79 yards and a 30-yard touchdown against Washington last Sunday.
Oakland Raiders @ Chicago Bears
Winner: Oakland Raiders 67.5 percent
Pick: Oakland Raiders -3
Here are the results for all 10 drives with Jimmy Clausen under center for the Chicago Bears during last Sunday’s game: punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt, punt and punt.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals 57.1 percent
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -4
The Kansas City Chiefs lost starting cornerback Phillip Gaines to a left knee sprain. He was their only cornerback who had yet to be scored on when in primary coverage, holding opposing quarterbacks to a 85.4 rating.
Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton, meanwhile, ranks fourth in ESPN’s QBR metric (84), which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Winner: Indianapolis Colts 78.6 percent
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +9
The Colts have the worst average starting position in the league (own 22.2 yard line) and pass 69.9 percent of the time. With Andrew Luck nursing an injury, it won’t be easy for them to run up the score on Jacksonville.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winner: Carolina Panthers 56.3 percent
Pick: Carolina Panthers -3
The Carolina Panthers lead the league with a plus-13 big-play differential and a turnover differential of plus-4 for a toxic differential of plus-17, highest in NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles 55.7 percent
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3
The Redskins best offensive player has been tight end Jordan Reed, who caught 6 of 9 passes Thursday night for a team-high 96 yards.
Philadelphia has allowed just 43.6 yards on average to the position and just one tight end has scored a touchdown dating back to last season (Jack Doyle, Week 2 of 2014 season).
Cleveland Browns @ San Diego Chargers
Winner: San Diego Chargers 66.0 percent
Pick: San Diego Chargers -7.5
No team has allowed more rushing yards than the Browns (475). If the Chargers can establish the running game, it could help pave the way for rookie running back Melvin Gordon to fulfill his potential.
Drafted 15th overall in last year’s draft, Gordon has broken nine tackles and is averaging 2.7 yards per carry after contact, but has not yet had his breakout game.
St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
Winner: Arizona Cardinals 60.8 percent
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -7
The Cardinals offense has produced 74 first downs (third most in league) and their defense has allowed just 46, fewest in the NFL. And with Ben Roethlisberger injured, Carson Palmer (91.1) has a chance to be the top rated quarterback per ESPN’s QBR rating.
Palmer’s biggest strides have come against pressure. Last season his passer rating under those conditions was 61.0, this year it is 100.4.
Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos
Winner: Denver Broncos 70.0 percent
Pick: Denver Broncos -6.5
Minnesota averages the second most yards per carry (4.8) but Denver’s defense is stout, allowing 3.5. Since the Vikings’ offense is so reliant on Adrian Peterson (57.9 percent of plays are rushing attempts when the score is within a touchdown), go with the Bronco’s defense.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers
Winner: Green Bay Packers 65.7 percent
Pick: Green Bay Packers -8.5
As if Aaron Rodgers and the Packers’ passing game needed any help, the 49ers secondary is allowing the second highest net yards per pass attempt (8.8).
Dallas Cowboys @ New Orleans Saints
Winner: Dallas Cowboys 50.6 percent
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +4
Outside of Cameron Jordan (one sack, one hit and nine hurries), the Saints don’t have much of a pass rush. Plus, it still doesn’t seem like quarterback Drew Brees is going to be fully healthy.
Drew Brees: "I'll see how the shoulder responds tomorrow and the rest of the day, but each day I'm able to do more."— Evan Woodbery (@evanwoodbery) September 30, 2015
Detroit Lions @ Seattle Seahawks
Winner: Seattle Seahawks 68.3 percent
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -10
The Seahawks have forced opponents to a three-and-out 32.3 percent of the time, which is going to be trouble for Matt Stafford, who is 4 for 29 for 144 yards with no touchdowns and four interceptions (23.4 passer rating) on third down.