Season results: 47-56-2 against the spread; 11-6-1 against the cats.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots
The Dolphins have improved quite a bit after firing coach Joe Philbin, but this Patriots team is the most efficient this season per Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
Winner: New England Patriots 67.3 percent
Pick: New England Patriots -8
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs
Detroit fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi this week, but will have to improve significantly to get their second win of the season. Offensively the Lions score the fifth lowest points per drive (1.6) while allowing the second highest on defense (2.4).
Winner: Kansas City Chiefs 64.5 percent
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
The Bucs’ best cover corner, Alterraun Verner, has a 106.7 passer rating against when in primary coverage. Their worst, Johnthan Banks, has a 143.4 rating against. That should be a recipe for success for the Falcons’ Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons 84.0 percent
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -7
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Adrian Peterson has nine carries inside the 5-yard line for minus-5 yards and just one touchdown. The Bears defensive front ranks 22 out of 32 teams at stopping those plays. No upset here.
Winner: Minnesota Vikings 67.7 percent
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -1
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns
Arizona scores the fourth most points per trip to the red zone (5.57) against a Browns’ defense that ranks 27th in overall efficiency.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals 83.3 percent
Pick: Arizona Cardinals -4.5
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
The Titans are better than their 1-5 record suggests. They rank 6th in pass defense, allowing them to contain Brian Hoyer and the Texans’ passing attack, and without Arian Foster won’t have to face a strong rusher out of the backfield.
Houston wins at home, but it will be close.
Winner: Houston Texans 52.1 percent
Pick: Tennessee Titans +4
New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints
The Saints have won two straight and the Giants have no pass rush of note. That could be a big factor, as Drew Brees has a 100.1 passer rating when not facing a blitz or pressure.
Winner: New Orleans Saints 51.2 percent
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back, which should get wideout Antonio Brown more involved in the passing game. Brown had 1,638 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, but saw his number called less often after Roethlisberger’s injury.
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers 50.2 percent
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Even
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams
After adjusting for strength of schedule, the 49ers are 7.2 points per game worse than average. That won’t be good enough to beat the Rams on Sunday or keep it close.
Winner: St. Louis Rams 68.8 percent
Pick: St. Louis Rams -8.5
San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens’ defense allows 7.3 net yards per pass attempt and faces Philip Rivers, who leads the league with 311 pass attempts ans 211 completions.
Chargers should get a lead early and nullify Baltimore’s ground game for the win.
Winner: San Diego Chargers 53.3 percent
Pick: San Diego Chargers +3
New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders
Jets’ Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall should have a field day against a Raiders’ defense allowing the most passing yards this season (1,823).
Winner: New York Jets 74.0 percent
Pick: New York Jets -2.5
Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys may not win another game until quarterback Tony Romo returns from injury. Plus, the Seahawks defense looks to be back on track, ranking in the top 10 against the rush and pass.
Winner: Seattle Seahawks 59.3 percent
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6
Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Denver’s defense has 17 turnovers, the most in the NFL, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers rarely make mistakes (four team turnovers this season).
Winner: Green Bay Packers 57.3 percent
Pick: Green Bay Packers -3
Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers
Carolina has a top 10 pass rush and Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck sees his passer rating drop from 98.4 to 35.5 this season under pressure.
Winner: Carolina Panthers 62.7 percent
Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7