Each week, Neil Greenberg makes NFL game predictions based on a multitude of factors that will have an impact on game day. These include efficiency stats such as success rates, yards per play and yards allowed per play, plus points scored based on strength of opponent. Point spreads are the consensus odds from multiple sports books in Vegas.

A team’s win probability is based on applying the model from Wayne Winston’s book “Mathletics” to my own point spread, which is derived in part from the Simple Rating System.

Season results: 47-56-2 against the spread; 11-6-1 against the cats.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

The Dolphins have improved quite a bit after firing coach Joe Philbin, but this Patriots team is the most efficient this season per Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.

Winner: New England Patriots 67.3 percent

Pick: New England Patriots -8

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs

Detroit fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi this week, but will have to improve significantly to get their second win of the season. Offensively the Lions score the fifth lowest points per drive (1.6) while allowing the second highest on defense (2.4).

Winner: Kansas City Chiefs 64.5 percent

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -5.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Bucs’ best cover corner, Alterraun Verner, has a 106.7 passer rating against when in primary coverage. Their worst, Johnthan Banks, has a 143.4 rating against. That should be a recipe for success for the Falcons’ Matt Ryan and Julio Jones.

Winner: Atlanta Falcons 84.0 percent

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -7

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

Winner: Minnesota Vikings 67.7 percent

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -1

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns

Arizona scores the fourth most points per trip to the red zone (5.57) against a Browns’ defense that ranks 27th in overall efficiency.

Winner: Arizona Cardinals 83.3 percent

Pick: Arizona Cardinals -4.5

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans

The Titans are better than their 1-5 record suggests. They rank 6th in pass defense, allowing them to contain Brian Hoyer and the Texans’ passing attack, and without Arian Foster won’t have to face a strong rusher out of the backfield.

Houston wins at home, but it will be close.

Winner: Houston Texans 52.1 percent

Pick: Tennessee Titans +4

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

The Saints have won two straight and the Giants have no pass rush of note. That could be a big factor, as Drew Brees has a 100.1 passer rating when not facing a blitz or pressure.

Winner: New Orleans Saints 51.2 percent

Pick: New Orleans Saints -3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers get Ben Roethlisberger back, which should get wideout Antonio Brown more involved in the passing game. Brown had 1,638 yards and 13 touchdowns last season, but saw his number called less often after Roethlisberger’s injury.

Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers 50.2 percent

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers Even

San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams

After adjusting for strength of schedule, the 49ers are 7.2 points per game worse than average. That won’t be good enough to beat the Rams on Sunday or keep it close.

Winner: St. Louis Rams 68.8 percent

Pick: St. Louis Rams -8.5

San Diego Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens’ defense allows 7.3 net yards per pass attempt and faces Philip Rivers, who leads the league with 311 pass attempts ans 211 completions.

Chargers should get a lead early and nullify Baltimore’s ground game for the win.

Winner: San Diego Chargers 53.3 percent

Pick: San Diego Chargers +3

New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Jets’ Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall should have a field day against a Raiders’ defense allowing the most passing yards this season (1,823).

Winner: New York Jets 74.0 percent

Pick: New York Jets -2.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys may not win another game until quarterback Tony Romo returns from injury. Plus, the Seahawks defense looks to be back on track, ranking in the top 10 against the rush and pass.

Winner: Seattle Seahawks 59.3 percent

Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

Denver’s defense has 17 turnovers, the most in the NFL, but Aaron Rodgers and the Packers rarely make mistakes (four team turnovers this season).

Winner: Green Bay Packers 57.3 percent

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3

Indianapolis Colts @ Carolina Panthers

Carolina has a top 10 pass rush and Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck sees his passer rating drop from 98.4 to 35.5 this season under pressure.

Winner: Carolina Panthers 62.7 percent

Pick: Indianapolis Colts +7