Last time the Skins played the Pats at Gillete as 14 point dog?— Eric Bickel (@EBJunkies) November 4, 2015
Pats 52 Skins 7
Quarterback Tom Brady has completed 68.9 percent of his passes for 2,410 yards and a 20 to 1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He leads the league averaging 344.3 passing yards per game and ranks fifth in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (73.3), which values quarterback on all play types on a 0-to-100 scale.
The Redskins’ pass defense is allowing the ninth most net yards per pass this season (6.9).
The Patriots have two running backs that can cause havoc out of the backfield. Dion Lewis is averaging 3.3 yards per carry after contact and produced 1.95 yards per route run when asked to catch balls out of the backfield. LaGarrette Blount has four runs of 15 yards or more and is perfectly suited to take advantage of the Redskins up the gut.
Per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, Washington is allowing 5.5 yards per carry on runs in the interior (from guard to guard on the offensive line), highest in the league. Blount averages 4.7 yards per carry when he rushes to either side of the center.
And then there is Rob Gronkowski, who has caught 40 passes for 646 yards and seven touchdowns, five of those coming in the red zone.
This should be a blowout, with plenty of touchdowns to go around for all Patriots’ players. If you have one, put him in your lineup.
Mark Ingram, New Orleans Saints
All eyes will be on Drew Brees and what he does after having a historic 500-yard, seven-touchdown passing performance, but Ingram is set to make the most of this week’s matchup against the Tennessee Titans.
The Titans defense is in the top 10 of Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. They haven’t allowed many net yards per attempt to opposing quarterback (6.4) but are in the top 10 for yards allowed per carry to running backs (4.3).
Ingram has produced double-digit fantasy points in all but two of his games and ranks eighth for yards per carry after contact (2.8) while getting the lion’s share of red-zone rushes.
Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a perfect matchup for Martin, who has 612 yards and four total touchdowns on the season.
He has at least 19 rushing attempts in every game but two and topped the 100-yard mark in three of his last four contests. Martin is averaging 2.99 yards per carry after contact (fifth most among qualified running backs) and, per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld, leads the league in rushing yards (230 yards on 30 attempts) on runs outside of either tackle. Their opponent, the New York Giants, allow 5.4 yards per carry on those runs, 10th highest in the league.
The Giants rank 18th in power success rate (65 percent), the percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that don’t achieved a first down or touchdown. New York ranks even lower in stuffed percentage (19 percent, 22nd in NFL), the percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. They rank 26th in second-level yards per carry (1.32), average yards earned by opposing running backs against this team between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
The biggest threat to Martin’s production is Charles Sims, who has seen 10 red-zone rushes to Martin’s 18, but Martin has five of the nine rushes inside the 5-yard line this season. Two have been touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers has been trending downward each week in fantasy points ever since Week 3 against Kansas City, where he threw for 333 yards and five touchdowns.
Last week against Denver was the first time in Rodgers’s career that he failed to throw for at least 100 yards in a game with at least 20 pass attempts, thanks to a Broncos’ pass rush that pressured him on a career-high 63 percent of his dropbacks.
Broncos' D pressured Aaron Rodgers on 63 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate he has been pressured in a game in past seven seasons.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 2, 2015
This week’s defense doesn’t get any easier.
The Carolina Panthers are allowing the second fewest net yards per pass (5.1) this season and rank 12th in adjusted sack rate (7.2 percent), which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent.
Only one passer has broken 300 yards against the Panthers’ defense this year (Luke McCown in Week 3) and none have more than two touchdowns against.
Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins
The resurgence in Miami after the firing of Joe Philbin is real. The Dolphins have won two of their three games since with the only loss coming against the New England Patriots.
Miller in particular has benefited from the coaching change. He saw double-digit carries in the first two games under interim coach Dan Campbell and would have seen more against the patriots if not for it being a blowout.
But this week’s matchup against the Buffalo Bills will prove to be just as difficult to gain yards on the ground.
Jacksonville’s T.J. Yeldon became the first running back this season to gain 100 or more yards on the the Bills’ defense and just the third to top the 50 yard mark. The other two, Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, each had 50 or more in Week 6 for the Bengals.
The Bills dont’ stop many runs behind the line of scrimmage (18 percent, 25th most in the NFL) but they do nullify the power-running game, allowing just 56 percent of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, to achieve a first down or touchdown. Buffalo also allows the second fewest yards per carry in the open field (more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage), which will help keep Miller, who has five runs of 15 yards or more, contained.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Robinson has been a fantasy gem this season. He has been the Jaguars most-frequently targeted receiver (69) and has made 34 catches for 586 yards and six touchdowns.
He leads all wide receivers for receptions of 20 yards or more (nine) and is in the top 10 for yards per route run (2.2) this season.
But this week he will face the Jets, which means Darrelle Revis will be the cornerback in primary coverage.
Revis has held opposing wideouts to 0.68 yards per cover snap and opposing quarterbacks have a 41.8 passer rating when throw a ball towards Revis Island. Only the Panthers’ Josh Norman has been better at keeping receivers contained.