Season results: 53-62-4 against the spread; 13-7-1 against the cats.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Browns have the 27th ranked defense according to Football Outsiders and will face off against Andy Dalton and the Bengals’ second-highest ranked offense.
Winner: Cincinnati Bengals 82.2 percent
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -11
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
The Bills nullify the power-running game, allowing just 56 percent of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, to achieve a first down or touchdown. Buffalo also allows the second fewest yards per carry in the open field (more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage), which will help keep the Dolphins’ offense contained.
Winner: Buffalo Bills 57 percent
Pick: Buffalo Bills -3
Green Bay Packers @ Carolina Panthers
I admit I wasn’t a big believer in the Panthers before their bye week, but their defense is the second most efficient in the NFL and could continue to fluster Packers’ quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
Winner: Carolina Panthers 63.0 percent
Pick: Carolina Panthers +2.5
St. Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings
Rams’ rookie running back Todd Gurley has averaged 6.1 yards per carry since his return from a torn ACL, and the Vikings allow 4.4 yards per rush, the eight highest in the NFL.
Winner: St. Louis Rams 52.4 percent
Pick: St. Louis Rams +2.5
Tennessee Titans @ New Orleans Saints
The Titans rank in the bottom three for points scored per drive (1.45) and yards per drive (26.5) this season.
Winner: New Orleans Saints 70.1 percent
Pick: New Orleans Saints -8
Washington Redskins @ New England Patriots
The Patriots have an average lead of 7.74 points at the beginning of their offensive drives, which indicates the Redskins will be in catchup mode throughout this game.
When Washington has trailed by eight or more points this season, they pass the ball 78.2 percent of the time. Kirk Cousins has a 89.7 passer rating in those situations with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Against the Jets, the only defense they have played comparable to New England’s, he was 9 for 17 for 75 yards and an interception when trailing for a 40.1 passer rating.
This could get ugly.
Winner: New England Patriots 77.1 percent
Pick: New England Patriots -14
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets
Darrelle Revis has held opposing wideouts to 0.68 yards per cover snap and opposing quarterbacks have a 41.8 passer rating when throw a ball towards Revis Island. Only the Panthers’ Josh Norman has been better at keeping receivers contained.
Winner: New York Jets 67.5 percent
Pick: New York Jets -2.5
Oakland Raiders @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers will have to adjust after losing running back Le’Veon Bell for the year, but Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Martavius Bryant and backup running back DeAngelo Williams give Pittsburgh enough weapons to put points on the board.
The Raiders, while a surprise this season, still don’t have the defense of a true contender, allowing the fifth highest plays per drive (6.4).
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers 54.2 percent
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
Atlanta Falcons @ San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have scored nine total points in their last two games and will have backup quarterback Blaine Gabbert under center.
Gabbert started three games last season and had a 1 to 7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons 63.9 percent
Pick: Atlanta Falcons -7
New York Giants @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Eli Manning is coming off a six-touchdown performance in which he lost the game. If he has half as good a day as he did against the Saints last week, they will win handily, as the Bucs punt on nearly a third of their drives (30.8 percent), the third most in the NFL.
Winner: New York Giants 54.2 percent
Pick: New York Giants -2.5
Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts
Denver has one of the best pass-rushing units in the league, and Colts’ quarterback Andrew Luck has seen his passer rating go from 90.7 to 36.8 under pressure, which is equivalent to going from Eli Manning to a passer worse than Matt Cassel.
Winner: Denver Broncos 67.9 percent
Pick: Denver Broncos -5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have yet to win a game without quarterback Tony Romo, who isn’t scheduled to return until Week 11. Expect the Eagles’ defense, which leads the league in turnovers per drive (21.8 percent), to have few problems in this matchup.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles 51.4 percent
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5
Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers
The Chargers lost a few key players to injury against the Ravens, including their star wideout Keenan Allen, but the Bears have injury concerns of their own after losing running back Matt Forte.
Look for Philip Rivers to pick apart a Bears’ defense that is allowing 6.7 net passing yards per attempt.
Winner: San Diego Chargers 54.7 percent
Pick: San Diego Chargers -4