Ravens quarterback Matt Schaub continues to struggle with interceptions returned for touchdowns, adding another pick-six to his career totals in Sunday’s game against the Miami Dolphins.
Schaub has now thrown a pick-six in each of the last three games he has played, and that includes both his starts for Baltimore this season. What’s crazier, is that Schaub is now closing in on equaling his streak of four-straight games with a pick-six, an NFL record he set in 2013.
Interceptions are statistically fluky events, with a defense having little control over when and where they happen, but in Schaub’s case, it certainly seems like he is making it easier for the defense than it should be.
This season, as of the end of Week 12, the chances of seeing a pick-six on any given pass attempt was 0.3 percent. Schaub has two in 62 attempts as of the end of the first half of today’s contest, giving him a 3.2 percent rate — 10 times what we would expect from an average pass.
Since 2013, there have been 151 interceptions returned for touchdowns, giving you an 11 percent chance of seeing one in any given game. If we go with the assumption that all games and quarterbacks are equal, that puts the chances of Schaub throwing a pick-six in each of his last three games at 0.13 percent, or a 1-in-751 chance.
The odds of a quarterback throwing pick-sixes in four straight games is 6,830-to-1. The odds of the same quarterback throwing pick-sixes in four straight games twice in his career is that squared, almost 4,000 times worse than being struck by lightning (12,000 to 1).