His all-world size and speed combination, exemplified by running a 4.35 40-yard dash at 239 pounds at the 2007 scouting combine, helped him hold the title of the most dominant receiver in the NFL for multiple seasons. It’s clear now that a consistent barrage of lower body injuries and age finally caught up to Johnson. He is no longer a premier vertical asset at the NFL level, as he was for the majority of his nine-year career. However, Johnson is not completely finished as a plus starter.
According to Success Rate vs. Coverage, or SRVC, Johnson ran slant, dig and flat routes well. SRVC measures how often a receiver gets open on a specific route, or brand of coverage. Working free from the opposing defense with his route-running is the first, and most critical, part of the receiver’s job in presenting a reliable target to his quarterback. Reception Perception’s SRVC helps quantify what type of, and how proficient a route runner a receiver is. It shows that Johnson still holds incredible quickness for his size, despite his deep speed being in the rear-view mirror. He can flash open quickly on those more advanced timing routes.
If Johnson were to continue his NFL career into 2016 and beyond, it would need to be in an adjusted role. The Lions coaching staff asked Johnson to run a nine route, a passing pattern where a receiver streaks vertically down the field, on 24.9 percent of the 269 total patterns charted in his Reception Perception sample. It was his most frequent assignment, and one that no longer fits what he does best. Larry Fitzgerald of the Arizona Cardinals underwent a similar transition when Bruce Arians took over as head coach in the desert. The veteran receiver wins with tremendous route-running acumen and ball skills from the slot, while younger athletes like John Brown and Michael Floyd threaten deep.
Johnson could follow that same path to extend his career, but by many accounts, he holds little interest in doing so. Naturally, the first player to consider as a part of the Lions’ replacement plan is Golden Tate. However, Tate’s Reception Perception from 2015 calls into question the wisdom of asking him to function outside of his designated role for an extended stretch.
Unlike Johnson, whose route assignments were heavily skewed toward nines (24.9 percent) and slants (22.7 percent), Tate runs a variety of routes. He splits time between the slot and flanker positions in the offense, proving the perfect complement to a strong outside X-receiver. Therein lies the rub; Tate is an integral piece to the foundation of the offense, but not the pillar it can stand on.
Tate posted a 41.3 percent SRVC on nine routes, getting open at a below average rate on that pattern. Similarly, he did not record a single fantasy point (PTS) as a receiver on those routes. In this case, a successful route is defined as one where the receiver gets open. The complete lack of production on this branch of the route tree just highlights that the vertical game is not Tate’s strength as a player. Some of his highest scoring routes come on the flat, slant and screen patterns, where he recorded 72 percent of his PTS in his Reception Perception sample. Per Pro Football Focus, Tate had the lowest average depth of target among receivers with 100-plus targets in 2015, checking in at just 5.8. The next lowest aDOT among receivers in that same group was Jarvis Landry with 7.4.
All of those short-area routes put Tate “in space” at an above average rate of 10.5 percent of his 286 routes. He demonstrates his unique aggression and ability to make defenders miss in the open field, breaking at least one tackle on 53.3 percent of his “in space” attempts. That rate charts out in the 90th percentile over the last two seasons.
All this goes to show that Golden Tate is an extremely valuable piece to the Lions offense, but one that should remain in his current designated role.
Matt Harmon is the creator of the Reception Perception methodology and a writer for NFL.com. Follow him on Twitter (@MattHarmon_BYB) and keep up with his analysis using the hashtag #ReceptionPerception.