The NHL regular season begins Oct. 12, here’s how it’s projected to end — with a look at some key stats that could make all the difference.
Stamkos (36) and Kucherov (30) each reached the 30-goal milestone last season, but the team’s offense dropped off after that, with Ondrej Palat a distant third (16) on the squad. And the two were also very effective when they skated together.
During the 281 even-strength minutes they shared on the ice, they scored 2.34 goals per 60 minutes and put almost 57 percent of shot attempts in their team’s favor.
Florida Panthers, 100 points*
Forward Jonathan Huberdeau sustained a lower-leg injury in the preseason and is expected to miss three to four months, but the loss of the top-line forward might not be as hard to replace as once thought. Last season, Huberdeau had an on-ice shooting percentage of 10.4 percent at even strength, inflating his point totals, but he was outshot on the ice 748 attempts to 717 (49 percent).
Jonathan Marchessault (54.5 percent of even-strength shot attempts) and Colton Sceviour (50.3 percent) should be able to provide an effective stop gap.
Jonathan Marchessault is working on the #FlaPanthers top line with Barkov and Jagr at today's practice. Early indication of things to come?
— David Dwork (@DavidDwork) October 10, 2016
Montreal Canadiens, 99 points*
Injuries made it impossible for Carey Price to defend his MVP and Vezina trophies from 2014-15, but when he was healthy he stopped 341 of 365 shots (.934 ave percentage) last season. And the Habs will need every bit of his ability to make saves now that P.K. Subban was traded to the Nashville Predators for defenseman Shea Weber.
Perhaps you discount Subban’s ability to play in the defensive end, but there is no doubting his skill in the offensive zone. Last season, the team scored 3.06 even-strength goals per 60 minutes with Subban on the ice and 1.82 when he did not skate.
Those lost goals will put even more pressure on Price to play well.
Boston Bruins, 91 points
Ignoring special teams and lead-protecting situations, only two Boston blueliners were above 50 percent in shot-attempt percentage. With captain Zdeno Chara (39 years old) and John-Michael Liles (35 years old) well past their prime, and with no new additions to pick up the slack, the Bruins could miss the playoffs again as a result.
Detroit Red Wings, 88 points
Pavel Datsyuk, a two-time Stanley Cup champion and three-time winner of the Selke trophy, awarded to the best defensive forward in the game, has returned to his native Russia to play in the Kontinental Hockey League.
The Red Wings will miss his ability to carry the puck into the offensive zone the most. When the blog Winging it in Motwon tracked zone entries in 2014-15, they found Datsyuk carried the puck in the zone with control 47 percent of the time, substantially higher than the next best player on the team, Jonathan Ericsson (29 percent).
Buffalo Sabres, 81 points
Buffalo’s offense gets an upgrade with the addition of Kyle Okposo, but the amount of shot attempts they put in their favor (46.8 percent during close game situations at even strength) last season makes a playoff run improbable, even with the new faces and Jack Eichel with his rookie season out of the way.
Ottawa Senators, 78 points
Ottawa has a few problems it must address before they get back into playoff contention. The Senators allowed 31.8 shots against per 60 minutes at even strength — only Colorado allowed more — while producing the second-lowest save percentage on the penalty kill (.844).
Toronto Maple Leafs, 76 points
Based on the final season in the Swiss League of 2016 No. 1 overall draft pick Auston Matthews, Stephen Burtch of Sportsnet projects the No. 1 overall pick in the 2016 NHL draft will produce 0.51 points per game at the NHL level.
That would be on par with recent rookie performances from Jordan Staal (third in Calder voting in 2006-07), Jamie Benn (seventh in Calder voting in 2009-10) and Sam Reinhart (ninth in Calder voting in 2015-16). In other words, slightly disappointing based on expectations.
Metropolitan Division
Pittsburgh Penguins, 106 points*
It’s unknown how long Pittsburgh Penguins superstar Sidney Crosby will be out with his latest concussion, but it is not hyperbole to say if he isn’t at full strength this team is in trouble.
Crosby routinely lines up against the opposition’s best competition and there hasn’t been a year in which Crosby’s teammates scored more even-strength goals per 60 minutes with him on the bench. For example, during their Cup-winning run last season, the team scored 3.08 even-strength goals per 60 minutes with Crosby on the ice, but those same lineups managed just 1.98 per 60 with Sid the Kid on the bench.
The oddsmakers in Vegas are being cautious with how much they discount this Pens team without Crosby, reducing the over/under on standings points from 102.5 to 100.5 before wagering forced them to revise it slightly upward.
made a 2 point adjustment from 102.5 to 100.5 ... was bet over now sit at 101.5
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) October 11, 2016
Washington Capitals, 105 points*
With the exception of adding Lars Eller and Brett Connolly at the expense of Jason Chimera, the team that won the Presidents’ Trophy while setting a franchise record for wins (56) last season is intact. But the defensive depth remains a team weakness.
Dmitry Orlov could change all that. Wrist surgery sidelined him for the entire 2014-15 season and he failed to distinguish himself in 2015-16 after averaging 16 minutes per game and 29 total points despite starting over 40 percent of his even-strength shifts in the offensive zone. But if he can become a top-four blueliner, the Caps have a chance at moving past the Penguins in the division.
New York Rangers, 96 points*
It’s getting harder for goaltender Henrik Lundqvist to win games for the New York Rangers. Based on the team’s win threshold, which is simply the save percentage a goaltender needs to produce to have a 50/50 chance of winning a game, Lundqvist needed to post a save percentage of .914 last season to be effective. The year before he needed a save percentage of .895.
And now that the Rangers lost forwards Dominic Moore, Derick Brassard, Eric Staal, and Viktor Stalberg, along with defensemen Dan Boyle and Keith Yandle, they could allow even more total shots attempts per 60 minutes than they did last season (42.3 per 60, ninth-worst in NHL).
New York Islanders, 94 points*
Losing forwards Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen hurts. Those two ranked No. 1 and No. 2 on the team for defensive zone starts (348 and 323, respectively) with Nielsen winning 53 percent of the team’s defensive-zone draws. Perhaps that means more defensive-zone draws for John Tavares, who led the team with 448 offensive zone starts during the 2015-16 campaign, 70 more than Okposo had that same season.
Philadelphia Flyers, 93 points*
Defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere finished second in the rookie of the year voting after skating over 20 minutes per night for the Flyers. His 1.2 even-strength points per 60 minutes ranked him No. 11 among blueliners playing at least 500 minutes and he led the team in controlled zone entry percentage, carrying the puck in 47.1 percent of the time.
If the Flyers want Gostisbehere to take the next step they should find him a partner other than Andrew MacDonald. Last season, MacDonald allowed opponents to carry the puck in 59 percent of the time, compared to a team-low 44.8 percent for Gostisbehere.
New Jersey Devils, 84 points
No team scored fewer goals than the Devils (184) last season, but the acquisition of Taylor Hall could change all that.
Hall ranked No. 11 last season for even-strength points scored per 60 minutes (2.31) and has three seasons topping the 20-goal plateau.
Carolina Hurricanes, 83 points
This team is young, and the lack of top-end scoring talent will keep them from a playoff spot. Their best scorer, Jeff Skinner, averaged 2.05 even-strength points per 60 minutes last season, but no other forward playing at least 1,000 minutes was higher than 1.5. For context, you expect a top-six forward to be above 1.8.
Columbus Blue Jackets, 79 points
The Blue Jackets were predicted by many to make the playoffs in 2015-16 but they fell short, finishing last in the Metropolitan Division with a 34-40-8 record.
If they are going to make the postseason this spring, Sergei Bobrovsky needs to become at least an average goaltender. The former Vezina winner stopped just 952 of the 1,049 shots he faced (.908 save percentage) last season and gave the team a quality start (at least average save percentage) just 48.6 percent of the time.
Western Conference
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks, 104 points*
The Blackhawks have a lot of money tied up in stars Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane ($21 million combined cap hit in 2016-17), and they will need encore performances from each to justify the lofty figures.
Kane scored a league-leading 106 points last season and was rewarded with the Hart trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player. However, he and his linemates enjoyed a robust 13.1 shooting percentage in all situations while he was on the ice. With the league average closer to nine percent, look for some regression.
Toews, on the other hand, could see a bounce. The team shot just 6.6 percent at evens with him on the ice, the lowest mark by far since the 2007-08 season. However, the steady decline is a tad worrisome.
Dallas Stars, 103 points*
The goaltending for the Stars wasn’t great — they posted the third-worst save percentage in the NHL last season (.906) — but the good news is it doesn’t have to be.
Based on the team’s win threshold, their goaltenders needed to post an average save percentage of .899 over the last three seasons, which is significantly lower than the league average over that span (.915). Both Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi are capable of that and more.
Nashville Predators, 100 points*
Acquiring Subban was a shrewd move, and it gives the Predators one of the best defensemen in the NHL.
Subban was +19.58% relative Corsi in preseason. Seems good.
— Andrew Berkshire (@AndrewBerkshire) October 9, 2016
Subban won the Norris trophy in 2013 and finished third in the voting at the conclusion of the 2014-15 campaign. He has scored 51 or more points in each of the past three seasons and has kept his shot-attempt percentage above 50 percent every year since 2009. This despite playing against high-caliber skaters like Patrice Bergeron, Evander Kane, Nicklas Backstrom and Sidney Crosby most often.
St. Louis Blues, 97 points*
A lack of depth at forward is concerning. Vladimir Tarasenko scored 40 goals last season but their only other 20-goal scorer, David Backes, is now with the Boston Bruins. Troy Brouwer (18 goals) is also gone, leaving a trio who didn’t share any even-strength minutes last season as the projected second line: David Perron, Jori Lehtera and Robby Fabbri
Minnesota Wild, 96 points*
Bruce Boudreau has a track record of success. He was at the helm in Washington for the most productive years of Alex Ovechkin’s career and he led the Anaheim Ducks to four straight division titles.
Bruce Boudreau overall regular season record as a coach: 409-192-80. Is the fastest NHL coach to record 400 wins.
— Craig Custance (@CraigCustance) April 29, 2016
Look for an immediate improvement in the team’s shot rate at even strength. The Wild ranked No. 28 last season (27.1 per 60 minutes) but should be able to generate more shots in Boudreau’s system, which should help take the pressure off goaltender Devan Dubnyk, who had to face 1,829 shots against last season.
Winnipeg Jets, 89 points
Getting the trio of Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers and Blake Wheeler more ice time together would go a long way to making this team better.
Last season during even strength, this line scored 4.4 goals per 60 minutes while putting over 53 percent of all shot attempts in their favor.
Colorado Avalanche, 79 points
Colorado has the same problem every year: a lack of puck possession. Last season the Avs put just 44.2 percent of even-strength shot attempts in their favor and allowed a league-high 32 shots against per 60 minutes.
It remains to be seen how much impact new coach Jared Bednar will have on this deficiency, but if he is to return the Avalanche to the playoffs, he must get this team over the 50-percent mark in shot attempts, and that’s a tall task.
Since 2007, only the 2010-11 Florida Panthers have been under 45 percent one year and made the jump to 50 percent or better the following season.
Pacific Division
San Jose Sharks, 101 points*
By all accounts, the San Jose Sharks had a successful campaign last season. They finished 46-30-6 and made an appearance in the Stanley Cup finals, eventually succumbing to the Pittsburgh Penguins in six games. But not only are they wiser and more experienced, they are simply older, too, and that could make another title run difficult.
Four of their top-nine forwards — Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau and Joel Ward — are all over the age of 35, as is Paul Martin, one of their top-pair defensemen, which could push the average age of the team over 30 years old after adjusting for time on ice.
Since the NHL emerged from the lockout in 2005-06, only one Stanley Cup-winning team has had an average weighted age over 30, the 2008 Detroit Red Wings. Every other Cup winner was 29.3 or under with half of the winners over the past 11 years carrying an average weighted age of 28.3 or below.
According to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, the Sharks are currently 14-to-1 odds to win the 2016-17 Cup, which implies a 6.7 percent chance.
Los Angeles Kings, 96 points*
The Kings roster is stacked. Their captain, Anze Kopitar, won the Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward. Drew Doughty was named the NHL’s best defenseman. Goaltender Jonathan Quick was a Vezina finalist and coach Darryl Sutter finished eighth in the voting for coach of the year.
Plus, the Kings led the league in score-adjusted Corsi percentage during the regular season (56.3 percent) in 2015-16. The last six eventual Cup winners all ranked in the top 10 in this regard during the regular season, indicating that even if the Kings taper off, they are still built on a Cup-winning foundation.
Anaheim Ducks, 94 points*
The Ducks’ top line is anchored by Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, but the team has struggled to find a suitable winger to skate on that line. It’s not for a lack of trying. Last season Rickard Rakell, Jamie McGinn and Patrick Maroon all got a turn, but only Rakell remains on the roster.
Rakell’s performance with the Ducks’ dynamic duo was stellar: 2.6 even-strength goals for with just 1.7 allowed per 60 minutes in addition to putting 61 percent of all shot attempts in the team’s favor. However, Rakell is projected to be on the third line, leaving Nick Ritchie to be the team’s top-line option on the wing.
Ritchie spent just five minutes with Getzlaf and Perry last season, but he has big shoes to fill if the Ducks are to continue their dominance of the Pacific.
Calgary Flames, 93 points
The Flames were dead last in the NHL for save percentage last season (.898) prompting them to acquire Brian Elliott from the St. Louis Blues. Elliott’s first and last full seasons with his former club were good enough to get him in the Vezina discussion, but that’s driven more by luck than skill.
Elliott has seen a steady even-strength save percentage from year to year, but it’s when he sees good fortune on the penlty kill that he appears to be an above-average goaltender. Since this is not something that can be relied on with any degree of consistency, expectations for the Flames must be tempered accordingly.
Arizona Coyotes, 83 points
Oliver Ekman-Larsson, who finished seventh among NHL defensemen with 55 points last season, gets some help on the blue line after new general manager (and Fancy Stats aficionado) John Chayka signed defenseman Alex Goligoski to a five-year deal this offseason.
Goligoski had 37 points in 82 games for the Stars last season and helped the team put 54 percent of shot attempts in its favor after adjusting for team strength and score effects. Kevin Connauton led the Coyotes last year at 47.3 percent. Ekman-Larsson was No. 2 on the team at 46.9 percent.
Edmonton Oilers, 82 points
Connor McDavid, the youngest team captain in league history at 19 years old, finished No. 3 in the rookie-of-the-year voting last season after scoring 16 goals with 32 assists despite being limited to 45 games due to injury.
Since the lockout of 2004-05, only three other rookies have sustained a point-per-game pace while playing a minimum of half the season: Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. Only Crosby did it as a teenager.
So yeah, expectations for McDavid should be high.
The over/under for Connor McDavid's points is 86.5 points, per Bovada oddsmakers. Sidney Crosby is at 93.5. Patrick Kane is at 87.5
— Kevin Allen (@ByKevinAllen) October 10, 2016
Vancouver Canucks, 70 points
The top line of Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin and Loui Eriksson should be fun to watch.
The Sedin twins, despite turning 36 years old in September, showed no signs of slowing down, scoring 2.47 even-strength goals per 60 minutes as a duo last season and Eriksson was on the ice for 2.64 even-strength goals per 60 with Boston while he played for the Bruins.
The real concern is the second line of Sven Baertschi, Bo Horvat and Jannik Hansen, who scored just one even-strength goal in 53 shared minutes last season.
Correction: A prior version had Auston Matthews playing in the Finnish Elite League (Liiga).