Dating back to 2014, teams have converted these fourth-and-one opportunities 64.8 percent of the time, but based on down, distance and field position, the Falcons had a 50 percent win probability and a minus-0.3895 expected points total, meaning not only would they fail to score on the drive, but the Chargers, based on field position, would likely score themselves, thus winning the game.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the Falcons failed to convert, giving the Chargers prime field position on Atlanta’s 43-yard line. After Philip Rivers completed an 11-yard pass to tight end Antonio Gates and Melvin Gordon carried the ball a couple of times San Diego was set up for a 42-yard field goal, which falls in the 40- to 49-yard range, a range in which NFL kickers have an 82.4 percent success rate.
The kick was good and San Diego won, leaving Quinn to be second guessed during the post-game presser.
Correction: A previous version had incorrect fourth-down conversion rate.