Paul Goldschmidt’s sneaky stolen base tactics make him a super freak at first base

Arizona Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt is on pace to finish the season with 38 homers and 38 stolen bases, giving him a real possibility at the fifth 40-40 season in MLB history. (AP Photo/Matt York)

Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt is at it again.

The four-time all-star and two-time runner up in the NL most valuable player voting is batting .319 with the most walks (35) in the majors while creating runs at a rate that is 63 percent higher than average after accounting for league and park effects (163 wRC+). But Goldschmidt isn’t just an elite hitter: his 11 steals are the seventh most in the majors this season, putting him on pace to finish the season with 38 homers and 38 stolen bases, giving him a real possibility at the fifth 40-40 season in MLB history, and the first since Alfonso Soriano did it in 2006.

First basemen hitting with power is nothing new, but the added speed Goldschmidt brings to the table is rare. Since the turn of the 20th century, there have been 37 first baseman with at least 40 home runs in a season. Just eight of those also managed to steal at least 10 bases in that same year. Just one, Albert Pujols, has done it in the last decade (2005, 2009 and 2010). Jeff Bagwell is the only first baseman to have 40 or more home runs with 20 or more stolen bases in a season (1997 and 1999).

But here’s the funny part: Goldschmidt, who stole a career-high 32 bases a season ago, isn’t that fast. Rather, he is a smart and efficient base runner who utilizes elements other than his legs to swipe bases. According to Jeff Zimmerman of FanGraphs, he averages 4.44 seconds from home to first, placing him 178th out of 210 qualified runners, but Mike Petriello of MLB.com found that on Goldschmidt’s attempts to steal a base, his average lead from first increased from 11.73 feet to 14.74 feet, making the trip to second 76 feet instead of 78, which is the distance after a league-average lead from first. That’s helped Goldschmidt contribute the 11th highest runs above average this season through his ability to steal a base (1.3 wSB). Six of the players ahead of him are outfielders and the other four are middle infielders. By shortening the distance and being opportunistic, Goldschmidt places himself among some of the swiftest runners in the league.

The Miami Marlins’ Dee Gordon, by comparison, has added 1.9 runs above average through base stealing, but has a significantly faster home-to-first time (3.86 seconds) than Goldschmidt. Same for Jose Altuve of the Houston Astros (0.9 wSB, 3.91 seconds), Jarrod Dyson of the Seattle Mariners (1.7 wSB, 3.99 seconds) and Jose Peraza of the Cincinnati Reds (1.1 wSB, 4.01 seconds). In other words, Goldschmidt adds as much value as a speedster who can get from home to first in less than four seconds despite being almost a half-second slower when it comes to foot speed.

But can he utilize that approach to crack the 40-40 barrier? That’s a much trickier proposition.

Neither Steamer nor ZiPS projections has Goldschmidt reaching the 30-30 mark, let alone 40-40. Steamer estimates he will finish the season with 31 home runs and 26 stolen bases while ZiPS forecasts a 32-27 season. However, neither has him getting over 668 plate appearances either, despite exceeding that plateau in each of the past two seasons.

Regardless of the 40-40 pursuit, Goldschmidt will put himself squarely in the NL MVP conversation (again) this year. The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 53 percent chance of reaching the postseason for the first time since 2011 and Goldschmidt is on pace to finish the season with 6.3 wins above replacement, a few ticks shy of where Bryce Harper, the favorite to win the award, is expected to finish. Since 2008, the eventual NL MVP ended the year first in fWAR in eight of the past nine seasons, including every winner since 2012, giving Goldschmidt a freakish chance at MVP honors by season’s end.