The Green Bay Packers are a good choice for your eliminator or survivor pool in Week 4. (Matt Ludtke/AP)

Eliminator and survivor pools are becoming increasingly popular among NFL fans. The premise is simple —  every week you pick a team to win its matchup. If you choose correctly, you advance to the next week. Choose poorly and you’re out for the season. There is a wrinkle: You can only use a team once during the season.

That’s where the strategy comes in. Do you choose a big favorite, such as the New England Patriots to beat the Kansas City Chiefs, and risk not having them for the rest of the season, or do you play it safe(r) and go with the Pittsburgh Steelers in their matchup against the Cleveland Browns?

The key is a balance of the two, using aggressive, but logical, plays each week in an effort to win the pool, not merely survive week to week.

To determine win probabilities for each week, spreads released by Cantor Technology for every NFL game in Weeks 1-16 — Week 17 is excluded because players sitting out the final week and teams jockeying for playoff positioning make projections fairly erratic — were entered in Pro Football Reference’s win probability formula, then the entire season was simulated, giving us the best picks for each week while adhering to the rules of using a team only once.

You’ll want to target the weakest teams on the road each week, and for 2017 that includes the Cleveland Browns, San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams, Chicago Bears and New York Jets — the bottom five teams in the preseason power rankings.

In Week 1, that means taking the Buffalo Bills over the New York Jets.

The Bills got good news when they learned starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor cleared concussion protocol and can suit up. Taylor was the ninth most valuable passer last season per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating with an ability to break down opposing defenses with his arm and legs — his 580 rushing yards were the most among quarterbacks last season and his six rushing touchdowns tied him with Dak Prescott for most at the position in 2016.

The Jets, meanwhile, will probably struggle out of the gate. Starting quarterback Josh McCown produced a below-average passer rating in 2016 (72.3) and will have two starting receivers with little experience in the NFL. Charone Peake caught 19 of 35 targets for 186 yards in 2016 and Robby Anderson caught 42 of 78 targets for 587 yards and two touchdowns last season. McCown did show a little chemistry with those two during the preseason, completing three of seven passes for 62 yards and a touchdown, but it is going to take more than that to win the Jets’ first season opener against a division rival since 2008.

Here’s how you can optimize the rest of your picks throughout the season. Good luck!

Week 2: Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns

92 percent win probability

Week 3: New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans

79 percent win probability

Week 4: Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

93 percent win probability

Week 5: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

91 percent win probability

Week 6: Washington Redskins vs. San Francisco 49ers

82 percent win probability

Week 7: Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

72 percent win probability

Week 8: Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers

79 percent win probability

Week 9: New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Rams

92 percent win probability

Week 10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New York Jets

70 percent win probability

Week 11: Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Rams

88 percent win probability

Week 12: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns

85 percent win probability

Week 13: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns

82 percent win probability

Week 14: Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

89 percent win probability

Week 15: New Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets

76 percent win probability

Week 16: Tennessee Titans vs. Los Angeles Rams

82 percent win probability

Week 17: Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals

61 percent win probability

Read more on the NFL:

The making of Colin Kaepernick: How a quarterback without a team became the most talked-about man in the NFL

Can the Patriots contain the Chiefs’ Tyreek Hill?

Week 1 Power Rankings and ATS picks

Browns’ Myles Garrett, the No. 1 draft pick, will miss the opener

How Cam Newton can again dominate the NFL, and fantasy football