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NFL Week 10 Power Rankings, ATS Picks: Jaguars moving up; Cowboys will upset Falcons

Jacksonville is allowing a league-low 1.1 points per drive in addition to a league-low 63.5 passer rating against. (Stephen B. Morton/AP)

There isn’t much change at the top of this week’s power rankings, which take into account a team’s actual record, what their record should be based on points scored and allowed and how much better or worse their opponents are in relation to a .500 team.

But there are some teams on the move.

The Jacksonville Jaguars move up four spots and are perhaps the most balanced team in the NFL. Their offense is scoring an above-average 1.9 points per drive (12th) with fewer than a third of their drives resulting in a three-and-out (12th). Jacksonville’s defense, meanwhile, has been lights out, allowing a league-low 1.1 points per drive in addition to a league-low 63.5 passer rating against. If that holds, it would be the 10th-lowest mark allowed by a defense since 2002, the year the league expanded to 32 teams.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were supposed to be a playoff team, but have instead been sliding toward the bottom of the rankings. Losers of five straight, the Bucs’ defense is allowing 2.2 points per drive, tied with the Green Bay Packers as the most porous defense in the NFL.

The Tennessee Titans are going in the opposite direction. Winners of three straight, they are now leading the AFC South, but two of those victories came against the 0-9 Cleveland Browns and 3-6 Indianapolis Colts, tempering enthusiasm. One area of improvement for the offense is gaining yards after the catch — Tennessee’s receivers are producing 3.7 yards after the catch per reception, the second-lowest mark in 2017.

Disagree with any of the rankings? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter.

Rank Team Power Rank (1 to 100) Change from last week
1 Philadelphia Eagles (8-1) 74 0
2 Los Angeles Rams (6-2) 73 1
3 New Orleans Saints (6-2) 72 -1
4 Minnesota Vikings (6-2) 67 1
5 New England Patriots (6-2) 65 1
6 Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3) 64 4
7 Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) 63 0
8 Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) 62 -4
9 Dallas Cowboys (5-3) 61 2
10 Seattle Seahawks (5-3) 61 -1
11 Carolina Panthers (6-3) 60 1
12 Buffalo Bills (5-3) 57 -4
13 Atlanta Falcons (4-4) 54 0
14 Detroit Lions (4-4) 50 3
15 Green Bay Packers (4-4) 50 -1
16 Washington Redskins (4-4) 49 2
17 Houston Texans (3-5) 49 -2
18 Tennessee Titans (5-3) 49 2
19 Baltimore Ravens (4-5) 47 -3
20 New York Jets (4-5) 45 4
21 Oakland Raiders (4-5) 45 1
22 Los Angeles Chargers (3-5) 45 -3
23 Miami Dolphins (4-4) 38 3
24 Arizona Cardinals (4-4) 38 4
25 Chicago Bears (3-5) 38 2
26 Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) 37 -5
27 Denver Broncos (3-5) 35 -4
28 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6) 34 -3
29 Indianapolis Colts (3-6) 29 1
30 New York Giants (1-7) 23 -1
31 Cleveland Browns (0-8) 16 1
32 San Francisco 49ers (0-9) 15 -1

Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Washington Redskins

Winner: Minnesota Vikings, 66 percent
Pick: Minnesota Vikings -1

Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins was put under pressure on 15 of his 38 dropbacks (40 percent) on Sunday against the Seahawks, who rank 15th for their pass-rushing ability per the game-charters at Pro Football Focus. The Vikings rank sixth and feature defensive end Everson Griffen, the eighth-highest rated edge rusher in 2017, per Pro Football Focus. He lines up primarily on the right side of the defensive line, giving Redskins backup left tackle T.J. Clemmings — who surrendered a sack, hit and three hurries against Seattle — and backup left guard Arie Kouandjio one of their most difficult matchups of the season.

The Redskins must do a better job protecting Kirk Cousins

New England Patriots (-7.5) at Denver Broncos
Winner: New England Patriots, 73 percent
Pick: New England Patriots -7.5

The Patriots’ passing game has scored better than two touchdowns per game more than expected based on the down, distance and field position at the time of the throw. That’s more than enough to overcome a Broncos defense that allows a 92.4 passer rating against.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Winner: Dallas Cowboys, 59 percent
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3

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The Cowboys aren’t getting the respect they deserve this week. According to Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent, Dallas is the eighth-best team in the NFL; the Atlanta Falcons rank 19th.

Points scored per drive Points allowed per drive
Dallas Cowboys 2.58 (1st) 1.94 (24th)
Atlanta Falcons 1.96 (10th) 1.93 (23rd)

Remaining games:

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Winner: Tennessee Titans, 69 percent
Pick: Tennessee Titans -4.5

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-12)
Winner: Detroit Lions, 89 percent
Pick: Detroit Lions -12

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5)
Winner: Chicago Bears, 56 percent
Pick: Green Bay Packers +5.5

Packers waive tight end Martellus Bennett in stunning move

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-12)
Winner: Los Angeles Rams, 79 percent
Pick: Houston Texans +12

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars, 81 percent
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9)
Winner: Carolina Panthers, 76 percent
Pick: Carolina Panthers -9

New Orleans Saints (-3) at Buffalo Bills
Winner: New Orleans Saints, 55 percent
Pick: New Orleans Saints -3

New York Giants (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers
Winner: New York Giants, 56 percent
Pick: New York Giants -2.5

New York Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winner: New York Jets, 56 percent
Pick: New York Jets -2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Indianapolis Colts
Winner: Pittsburgh Steelers, 82 percent
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -10

Seattle Seahawks (-6) at Arizona Cardinals
Winner: Seattle Seahawks, 68 percent
Pick: Seattle Seahawks -6

Read more on the NFL:

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The Giants are taking a good, hard look at everyone, even quarterback Eli Manning

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