For all the drama leading up to the Final Four, just one team still remaining, No. 11 Loyola Chicago, can be considered a Cinderella. The other three schools that will play in the national semifinals have more storied resumes than the Ramblers, who are making their second Final Four appearance in school history and first since 1963, the year they won the title.
Third-seeded Michigan, who will face Loyola Chicago, has appeared in the Final Four eight times and won it all in 1989. No. 1 seed Villanova was crowned champion in 2016 — one of two national titles for the school — with five appearances in the Final Four. The Wildcats’ opponent, No. 1 seed Kansas, has made 14 Final Fours with three championship banners to their credit.
As March Madness unfolds, we’re providing updated win probabilities for every team in the tournament. We’ll update these odds with the conclusion of every game, so you can see whether a Cinderella is going to keep dancing or is likely to be riding in the back seat of a pumpkin come the following round.
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 2 Duke
Finals: 30% | Title: 13%
The Jayhawks needed overtime but they managed to squeak past Duke to make the Final Four. Malik Newman led all scores with 32 points and both Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk and Silvio De Sousa had 10 rebounds. They will face No. 1 Villanova in the Final Four.
No. 1 Villanova beats No. 3 Texas Tech
Finals: 70% | Title: 49%
The Wildcats didn’t shoot very well — 33 percent overall and 4 for 24 (17 percent) from behind the arc — but they out rebounded the Red Raiders on the offensive boards (20 to 11) and had four players score in double digits to earn the school’s sixth Final Four appearance. They have the highest chance to win the 2018 NCAA title among remaining teams and will face No. 1 Kansas in the Final Four.
No. 3 Michigan beats No. 9 Florida State
Finals: 72% | Title: 31%
This one wasn’t easy for the Wolverines. They shot just 4 for 22 from the three-point line (18 percent) and had a mere eight assists — five from one player, guard Zavier Simpson. Luckily for them, the Seminoles weren’t much better behind the arc (4 for 17, 24 percent) or moving the ball (six assists). Michigan’s chance to go to the championship games rises from 49 to 70 percent and their title hopes are now the second-best (31 percent) behind Villanova (49 percent) pending the outcome of Sunday’s games. They will face No. 11 Loyola Chicago in the Final Four.
No. 11 Loyola Chicago upsets No. 9 Kansas State
Finals: 27% | Title: 5%
The Ramblers won again and are now only the fourth 11-seed to ever make the Final Four — LSU (1986), George Mason (2006) and VCU (2011) were the others. None have ever reached the national championship game, but Loyola Chicago has a 30 percent chance of making it that far and a 5 percent chance of winning it all in 2018.
No. 3 Texas Tech upsets No. 2 Purdue
Final Four: 26% | Finals: 8% | Title: 3%
You can’t blame this one on Carsen Edwards. The Boilermakers sophomore led all scorers with 27 points and added three rebounds and a steal, but it wasn’t enough to keep the Red Raiders from securing a meeting with No. 1 Villanova in the Elite Eight on Sunday.
No. 2 Duke beats No. 11 Syracuse
Final Four: 69% | Finals: 40% | Title: 27%
Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski has defeated Syracuse’s 2-3 zone before, and was able to do it again in the Sweet 16. Marvin Bagley III ended the game with 22 points, making him the sixth freshman ever to score at least 20 points in each of his first three NCAA Tournament games. The Blue Devils have a 69 percent chance of making the Final Four, but first they have to get past the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks.
No. 1 Villanova beats No. 5 West Virginia
Final Four: 74% | Finals: 44% | Title: 30%
West Virginia allowed a six-point lead to evaporate in the second half and Villanova took advantage, earning the Wildcats their third Elite Eight appearance under Coach Jay Wright. They are now the title favorite pending the winner of the remaining Sweet 16 games.
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 5 Clemson
Final Four: 31% | Finals: 10% | Title: 5%
Clemson’s elite defense — they entered the game allowing 92.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponent, seventh-best in the country —couldn’t stop Kansas from dominating the paint (30 points) or behind the arc (30 points). The Jayhawks title hopes rise from 2 to 5 percent after the win, and will face No. 2 Duke in the Elite Eight.
No. 9 Florida State upsets No. 4 Gonzaga
Final Four: 30% | Finals: 12% | Title: 3%
Florida State assisted on 18 of their field goals and Seminoles guard Terrance Mann led all players with 18 points while adding five rebounds. Florida State now has a 30 percent chance to make the Final Four — it was eight percent prior to the win over Gonzaga — and will face No. 3 Michigan in the Elite Eight.
No. 9 Kansas State upsets No. 5 Kentucky
Final Four: 49% | Finals: 17% | Title: 4%
Kentucky was forced into almost as many turnovers (15) as it had field goals (16), not exactly a recipe for success. Kansas State, meanwhile, went 9 for 22 (41 percent) from behind the arc and will face No. 11 Loyola Chicago in the Elite Eight. Kansas State’s chances of making the Final Four jump from 14 to 49 percent.
No. 3 Michigan beats No. 7 Texas A&M
Final Four: 70% | Finals: 49% | Title: 23%
The Aggies never had a chance in this one. Michigan opened up to a 52-28 lead at the half and went on cruise control for the rest of the game. Texas A&M didn’t do itself any favors by shooting 3 for 15 (20 percent) from behind the three-point line. The Wolverines’ title hopes rise from 5 to 23 percent after the win and will face No. 9 Florida State in the Elite Eight.
No. 11 Loyola Chicago upsets No. 7 Nevada
Final Four: 51% | Finals: 19% | Title: 5%
Loyola was able to withstand a 12-2 run by Nevada late in the second half by attacking the rim and getting clutch three-point shots, specifically one from Marques Townes, who had 18 points, five assists and four rebounds, with six seconds left. The Ramblers’ chances to make the Final Four jumps from 21 to 50 percent and they will face No. 9 Kansas State in the Elite Eight.
No. 5 West Virginia beats No. 13 Marshall
Elite Eight: 26% | Final Four: 10% | Finals: 3% | Title: 1%
The Mountaineers went on a 19-0 run in the first half giving West Virginia a 97 percent win probability, which they maxed out at 100 percent, naturally, by the game’s end. They will face No. 1 Villanova in the Sweet 16, an opponent which lowers their chance to make the Final Four from 11 to 10 percent.
No. 9 Florida State upsets No. 1 Xavier
Elite Eight: 24% | Final Four: 8% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%
The Seminoles outscored Xavier 31-14 down the stretch with P.J. Savoy hitting a three-point shot with a little over a minute to play to give Florida State its first lead of the second half. After the win, Florida State’s chances to make the Elite Eight ballooned from 9 to 24 percent. The Seminoles will face No. 4 Gonzaga in the next round.
No. 9 Kansas State beats No. 16 UMBC
Elite Eight: 34% | Final Four: 14% | Finals: 5% | Title: 1%
Barry Brown led Kansas State with 18 points — eight as the ballhandler during the pick-and-roll — and helped end UMBC’s reign as the ultimate bracket buster. With none of the top four seeds remaining in the South, their Final Four chances move up from 1 to 14 percent. They will face No. 5 Kentucky Thursday.
No. 5 Clemson upsets No. 4 Auburn
Elite Eight: 40% | Final Four: 11% | Finals: 4% | Title: 1%
Auburn shot just 26 percent from the field and 22 percent from three-point range, making it easy for No. 5 Clemson to move on to the Sweet 16, where they will face No. 1 Kansas. Still, the Tigers’ Final Four chances rise from 7 to 11 percent.
No. 7 Nevada upsets No. 2 Cincinnati
Elite Eight: 59% | Final Four: 29% | Finals: 13% | Title: 4%
The Bearcats looked like they had this one in the bag but then Nevada went on a 14-0 run, followed by a 7-0 run late in the game to punch its ticket to the Sweet 16 in stunning fashion. There they will meet No. 11 Loyola Chicago.
No. 7 Texas A&M upsets No. 2 North Carolina
Elite Eight: 31% | Final Four: 10% | Finals: 3% | Title: 1%
The Tar Heels were outworked from the beginning and hit just 6 of their 31 three-point attempts (19 percent), leading to an Aggies victory. Texas A&M will now face No. 3 Michigan in the Sweet 16.
No. 11 Syracuse upsets No. 3 Michigan State
Elite Eight: 13% | Final Four: 4% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%
Coach Jim Boeheim runs the zone defense more than any other college team (94 percent of the time) and on Sunday it proved to be too much for the Spartans to handle despite Michigan State beating Syracuse on the offensive boards 29 to 7.
Syracuse’s Elite Eight chances rise slightly after the win from 9 to 13 percent, and the Orange will face No. 2 Duke in the Sweet 16.
No. 2 Purdue beats No. 10 Butler
Elite Eight: 65% | Final Four: 29% | Finals: 14% | Title: 8%
The Boilermakers needed every minute to end Butler’s Cinderella bid. Vince Edwards was solid in the low post, scoring two points and drawing two fouls on four possessions plus seven points on three possessions in isolation. Purdue’s chances to make the Elite Eight rise from 58 to 64 percent.
No. 3 Michigan beats No. 6 Houston
Elite Eight: 68% | Final Four: 35% | Finals: 18% | Title: 8%
Freshman Jordan Poole hit a last-second three-point shot to send the Wolverines into the Sweet 16, giving them a 50-50 chance at the Elite Eight (it was 38 percent before the game), pending the outcome of No. 2 North Carolina and No. 7 Texas A&M.
No. 4 Gonzaga beats No. 5 Ohio State
Elite Eight: 75% | Final Four: 46% | Finals: 26% | Title: 13%
Gonzaga got out to a quick 15-0 lead while hitting 6 of 9 shots and saw Zach Norvell Jr., a red shirt freshman, score 28 points — six three-point shots — and grab 12 rebounds.
No. 3 Texas Tech beats No. 6 Florida
Elite Eight: 35% | Final Four: 13% | Finals: 4% | Title: 2%
Texas Tech makes the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005, when Coach Chris Beard was an assistant to the legendary Bobby Knight. Florida, meanwhile, falls short of the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2010. They will face No. 2 Purdue in the Sweet 16.
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 8 Seton Hall
Elite Eight: 59% | Final Four: 21% | Finals: 10% | Title: 5%
Kansas won, but Seton Hall’s Angel Delgado had a big night, scoring 24 points with 23 rebounds, making him only the fifth player in 40 years to have more than 20 points and rebounds in an NCAA tournament game, joining North Carolina’s Tyler Zeller (2012), Wake Forest’s Tim Duncan (1997), Maryland’s Joe Smith (1995) and Houston’s Hakeem Olajuwon (1983).
No. 11 Loyola Chicago upsets No. 3 Tennessee
Elite Eight: 40% | Final Four: 19% | Finals: 7% | Title: 1%
Sister Jean, the team chaplain for Loyola Chicago, called this upset and the Ramblers did not disappoint. Aundre Jackson had 16 points, four rebounds and an assist to help Loyola Chicago reach the Sweet 16 for the first time since 1985. Their chances to make the Elite Eight rise from 8 to 29 percent pending the outcome of No. 2 Cincinnati and No. 7 Nevada on Sunday.
No. 5 Kentucky beats No. 13 Buffalo
Elite Eight: 66% | Final Four: 38% | Finals: 20% | Title: 7%
Coach John Calipari saw a true team effort on Saturday with four players — P.J. Washington, Hamidou Diallo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Wenyen Gabriel — reaching double figures in getting the Wildcats to the Sweet 16. And now that UMBC knocked off Virginia, Kentucky’s chances to make the Final Four gets a little better, going from six to 32 percent.
No. 2 Duke beats No. 7 Rhode Island
Elite Eight: 86% | Final Four: 62% | Finals: 40% | Title: 27%
Atlantic Coast Conference player of the year Marvin Bagley III scored a team-high 22 points with nine rebounds and fellow freshman Wendell Carter Jr. added 13 points to help earn Duke its 26th trip to the Sweet 16. More importantly, after No. 7 Texas A&M upset No. 2 North Carolina, the Blue Devils’ championship hopes soar to 28 percent, the highest in the field behind No. 1 Villanova.
No. 1 Villanova beats No. 9 Alabama
Elite Eight: 77% | Final Four: 50% | Finals: 29% | Title: 20%
Villanova hit 17 three-point shots en route to an easy 81-58 victory over Alabama, increasing the Wildcats’ chances of making the Elite Eight from 68 to 76 percent. They have the second-best chance to win the NCAA title (26 percent).
No. 9 Florida State beat No. 8 Missouri
Sweet 16 odds: 33% | Elite Eight: 9% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%
The Seminoles took advantage of their depth — reserves Mfiondu Kabengele, Trent Forest and P.J. Savoy all scored in double digits — to defeat Missouri. Their chances to make the Sweet 16 rose from 16 to 33 percent after the win, but now they will face No. 1 Xavier on Sunday.
No. 5 Clemson beats No. 12 New Mexico St.
Sweet 16 odds: 64% | Elite Eight: 25% | Final Four: 7% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%
Shelton Mitchell led the Tigers in scoring (23 points) and added five assists and three rebounds. Clemson will face No. 4 Auburn in the second round.
No. 11 Syracuse upsets No. 6 TCU
Sweet 16 odds: 36% | Elite Eight: 9% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
The Orange beat Arizona State in a First Four game on Wednesday and then followed it up with an upset over TCU on Saturday. They will face No. 3 Michigan State on Sunday, a team that score more than a point-per possession against the zone defense (89th percentile), a staple of Syracuse’s defensive scheme.
No. 16 UMBC upsets No. 1 Virginia
Sweet 16 odds: 0% | Elite Eight: 0% | Final Four: 0% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
That’s not a typo. The Retrievers made history on Friday night and defeated the Cavaliers 74-54. No. 16 seeds were 0-135 all-time against No. 1 seeds leading up to tonight. And they didn’t just beat a No. 1 seed — UMBC beat the No. 1 seed in the tournament. March Madness, indeed.
The Retrievers will play No. 9 Kansas State on Sunday. I’d let you know what their chances are to move past the second round but my spreadsheet is in shock.
No. 1 Xavier beats vs. No. 16 Texas Southern
Sweet 16 odds: 71% | Elite Eight: 30% | Final Four: 13% | Finals: 5% | Title: 2%
The Musketeers romped to a victory with three players — Kareem Kanter, Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura — scoring at least 24 points.
No. 4 Auburn beats No. 13 College of Charleston
Sweet 16 odds: 58% | Elite Eight: 25% | Final Four: 12% | Finals: 4% | Title: 1%
Charleston made a game of it, but Auburn held on to win its first tournament game since 2003. The Tigers will have to perform better than 47 percent from the free throw line if they are to make it through to the Sweet 16 and beyond. Their chances did increase from 50 to 58 percent with the win.
No. 3 Michigan State beats No. 14 Bucknell
Sweet 16 odds: 75% | Elite Eight: 55% | Final Four: 31% | Finals: 16% | Title: 8%
Miles Bridges had 26 points, nine rebounds and four assists in the Spartans first-round victory. Already one of the stronger teams in the tournament, their chances to make the Final Four rise from 29 to 31 percent. They play Syracuse in the second round.
No. 9 Kansas State beats No. 8 Creighton
Sweet 16 odds: 89% | Elite Eight: 29% | Final Four: 5% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%
Slight upset by the Wildcats, who outshot the Bluejays 47 to 27 percent from behind the three-point line. They also dodged No. 1 Virginia in the second round thanks to the historic upset by UMBC, and now have an 89 percent chance to make the Sweet 16.
No. 7 Nevada beats No. 10 Texas
Sweet 16 odds: 24% | Elite Eight: 9% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 0%
Nevada came back from a 14-point deficit to win in overtime, making all six of its shots for 19 points in the extra period. The Wolf Pack’s chance of making the Sweet 16 go up slightly from 21 to 24 percent with No. 2 Cincinnati waiting for them on Sunday.
No. 5 West Virginia beats vs. No. 12 Murray State
Sweet 16 odds: 88% | Elite Eight: 21% | Final Four: 9% | Finals: 4% | Title: 1%
The Mountaineers came into the big dance creating turnovers on 23 percent of their defensive possessions, the second-most in the nation, and forced Murray State into 16 of them in their first round matchup. Now West Virginia has a 21 percent chance of making the Elite Eight — it was 12 percent before this game — and faces No. 13 Marshall in Round 2.
No. 2 Cincinnati beat No. 15 Georgia St.
Sweet 16 odds: 78% | Elite Eight: 57% | Final Four: 31% | Finals: 17% | Title: 9%
No. 10 Butler upset No. 7 Arkansas
Sweet 16 odds: 24% | Elite Eight: 10% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
The Bulldogs win shouldn’t be a surprise — we highlighted dangerous No. 10 seeds before the tournament began and listed Butler as the most-likely upset according to DAViD, the Data-Assisted Victory Detector. As a result, their chances to make the Sweet 16 move up from 17 to 24 percent, with a matchup against No. 3 Purdue awaiting them in the second round.
No. 2 North Carolina beat No. 15 Lipscomb
Sweet 16 odds: 74% | Elite Eight: 42% | Final Four: 25% | Finals: 13% | Title: 6%
Coach Roy Williams is now 28-0 in the round of 64, the most wins in the tournament without a loss. They will face No. 7 Texas A&M on Sunday.
No. 13 Marshall upsets No. 4 Wichita State
Sweet 16 odds: 10% | Elite Eight: 1% | Final Four: 0% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
Friday’s first upset comes as a shocker, giving the Thundering Herd their first ever first-round win in the tournament. Coach Dan D’Antoni made the most of his NBA-style offense, using three-point shots (39 percent against Wichita State) and layups to defeat the Shockers.
Marshall chances to make the Sweet 16 drop three percentage points at the prospect of facing No. 5 West Virginia in the next round.
No. 2 Purdue beats No. 15 Cal State Fullerton
Sweet 16 odds: 75% | Elite Eight: 49% | Final Four: 25% | Finals: 14% | Title: 7%
The Boilermakers cruised in this one, never giving the Titans higher than a seven percent chance to win, per ESPN’s win probability chart. Purdue’s Final Four and title hopes get a bump of a percentage point thanks to No. 13 Marshall’s upset over No. 4 Wichita State. Next round they face No. 10 Butler.
No. 7 Texas A&M beats No. 10 Providence
Sweet 16 odds: 25% | Elite Eight: 8% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
The Aggies started the game 0 for 10 from the floor with four turnovers and didn’t make a shot from the floor until there was 12 minutes and 43 seconds left on the clock in the first half, but Texas A&M prevailed over Providence to move on to the round of 32. With No. 2 North Carolina lurking in the next round, Texas A&M’s chances to advance beyond that remain unchanged.
No. 6 Florida beats No. 11 St. Bonaventure
Sweet 16 odds: 39% | Elite Eight: 12% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 1% | Title: 0%
The Bonnies’ hot hand — they ranked 26th in the country in three-point shooting (39 percent) — went cold against Florida (3 for 19), giving the Gators a 38 percent chance of making their sixth Sweet 16 appearance in eight seasons — five percentage points higher than it was before the victory. All that stands in their way is No. 3 seed Texas Tech.
No. 3 Michigan beats No. 14 Montana
Sweet 16 odds: 56% | Elite Eight: 37% | Final Four: 17% | Finals: 7% | Title: 3%
Montana opened up a 10-0 lead but couldn’t keep their foot on the pedal, going nearly 10 minutes without scoring a point later in the game. The Wolverines, however, didn’t put up much of a fight — Charles Matthews had a team-high 20 points and Michigan shot just 46 percent for the field. It will have to do better if they are going to make it past No. 6 seed Houston.
No. 9 Alabama beats No. 8 Virginia Tech
Sweet 16 odds: 11% | Elite Eight: 3% | Final Four: 0% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
Technically an upset, the Crimson Tide beat the Hokies, 86-83, giving Alabama its first win in the tournament since 2004. Colin Sexton scored 25 points with six assists and three rebounds while John Petty came off the bench to hit six of eight from behind the three-point arc. Now the Crimson Tide will face No. 1 Villanova.
No. 13 Buffalo upsets No. 4 Arizona
Sweet 16 odds: 24% | Elite Eight: 7% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
This is a bracket buster. According to ESPN, 18 percent of brackets had Arizona in the Final Four, yet it is Buffalo, 0-3 all-time in the tournament heading into Thursday’s matchup, that moves on. The Bulls had a seven percent chance of making the Sweet 16 before the win, now those odds have risen to 21 percent. All they have to do is beat No. 5 Kentucky on Saturday.
No. 6 Houston beats No. 11 San Diego State
Sweet 16 odds: 40% | Elite Eight: 15% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%
Houston, competing in the tournament for the first time since 2010, earned its first tournament win since 1984 after squeaking by San Diego State, 67-65. Senior Rob Gray scored most of Houston’s points, 39, in addition to grabbing eight rebounds. The Cougars had a 50/50 chance of making the Sweet 16 but that dropped to 40 percent after No. 3 Michigan beat No. 14 Montana.
No. 3 Texas Tech beats No. 14 Stephen F. Austin
Sweet 16 odds: 58% | Elite Eight: 34% | Final Four: 13% | Finals: 5% | Title: 2%
The Lumberjacks were seeded No. 14 when they pulled off an upset against West Virginia in the first round in 2016, but this time they fell 70-60 to Texas Tech, sending the Red Raiders to the second round for the first time since 2005. Texas Tech’s chances of making the Elite Eight remains the same with No. 6 Florida up next in Round 2.
No. 5 Kentucky beats No. 12 Davidson
Sweet 16 odds: 80% | Elite Eight: 14% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%
Kentucky went 0 for 6 from behind the three-point line but was still able to defeat Davidson, which is now 0 for 4 in the tournament since a 2008 run to the Elite Eight behind the hot hand of Stephen Curry.
Kentucky, meanwhile, sees its chance to make the Sweet 16 rise from 38 to 80 percent after No. 16 UMBC upset No. 1 Virginia in the South Region.
No. 1 Villanova beats No. 16 Radford
Sweet 16 odds: 92% | Elite Eight: 68% | Final Four: 48% | Finals: 32% | Title: 20%
The Highlanders had little chance in this one. According to ESPN, Radford’s win probability reached a high point of 2.5 percent — and that was less than two minutes into the first half. Now Villanova’s tournament outlook rise, in part due to Marshall’s upset over Wichita State, and its title chances remain the second-highest in the field. They will face No. 9 Alabama on Saturday.
No. 8 Seton Hall beats No. 9 North Carolina St.
Sweet 16 odds: 31% | Elite Eight: 11% | Final Four: 2% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
Seton Hall scored a season-high 94 points to move on to the next round, where their Sweet Sixteen chances improve slightly from 27 to 31 percent.
North Carolina State’s Omer Yurtseven, a 7-foot sophomore, was supposed to be able to slow down Seton Hall’s starting center Angel Delgado, but Delgado had 13 points, nine rebounds and four assists while Yurtseven fouled out with two points and two rebounds. Now it will be up to No. 1 Kansas, the Hall’s second-round opponent, and Mitch Lightfoot to protect the middle.
No. 5 Ohio State beats No. 12 South Dakota State
Sweet 16 odds: 37% | Elite Eight: 16% | Final Four: 6% | Finals: 2% | Title: 1%
The Buckeyes needed to take a season-high 40 three-point shots to move on to the round-of-32, where they will face No. 4 Gonzaga, a strong opponent that drops Ohio State’s chances at a Sweet 16 berth from 40 to 36 percent.
No. 11 Loyola Chicago upsets No. 6 Miami Fla.
Sweet 16 odds: 28% | Elite Eight: 8% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
The first upset of the tournament, and one we saw coming. Loyola wins its first NCAA tournament game since 1985, and has a very strong chance to reach the Sweet 16 in a potential game against Tennessee. The Ramblers double their chances of reaching the Elite Eight, getting them one step closer to being a Cinderella team.
No. 2 Duke vs. beats No. 15 Iona
Sweet 16 odds: 85% | Elite Eight: 61% | Final Four: 41% | Finals: 26% | Title: 15%
No surprise here. The Blue Devils won by 22 points behind a big game from Marvin Bagley III, whose tournament debut included 22 points and seven rebounds. Minimal changes to Duke’s tournament outlook as they get Rhode Island in the round of 32.
No. 1 Kansas beats No. 16 Penn
Sweet 16 odds: 70% | Elite Eight: 41% | Final Four: 18% | Finals: 7% | Title: 3%
This was the 1-vs.-16 matchup everyone thought could be “the one” where a 16-seed makes history, but the Jayhawks pulled out a 76-60 victory to keep the top seeds’ record unblemished in the first round.
Kansas championship hopes rise by one percentage point after the win, a minimal uptick you would expect after beating a 16, even a formidable one. Next up for the Jayhawks: No. 8 Seton Hall.
No. 4 Gonzaga beats No. 13 UNC Greensboro
Sweet 16 odds: 60% | Elite Eight: 35% | Final Four: 21% | Finals: 11% | Title: 5%
Gonzaga had to withstand a relentless barrage of shots from the paint in the second half but they pushed their tournament winning streak to 15 games, the longest of any tournament team.
The Bulldogs chances to make the Final Four remain robust, but their championship odds did not change. That could change with a win over No. 5 Ohio State in the second round.
No. 3 Tennessee beats No. 14 Wright State
Sweet 16 odds: 74% | Elite Eight: 43% | Final Four: 22% | Finals: 8% | Title: 3%
The Volunteers had no trouble with Wright State, who shot a woeful 32 percent form the field and even worse from behind the arc (18 percent). The Raiders were also out rebounded 44-32.
With the Volunteers widely expected to advance to the second round, the impact on their overall odds was minimal. They’ll get Cinderella-in-the-making Loyola Chicago on Saturday.
No. 7 Rhode Island beats No. 10 Oklahoma
Sweet 16 odds: 12% | Elite Eight: 2% | Final Four: 1% | Finals: 0% | Title: 0%
No. 7 Rhode Island held off upset-minded No. 10 Oklahoma in overtime to win its second trip to the round-of-32 in two years. Two Rams, Jared Terrell and E.C. Matthews, scored in double digits while Sooners star Trae Young did all he could in a losing effort: 26 points, seven assists and five rebounds on 8-for 17 shooting, 3-for-9 from three-point range.
Rhode Island will meet Duke in the second round.