The Washington Capitals have taken a 2-0 series lead on the road against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Eastern Conference finals. Since the Conference finals began in 1975, only two teams out of 41 have come back from an 0-2 deficit: the 1992 Pittsburgh Penguins and the 1984 New York Islanders.
The Winnipeg Jets, meanwhile, jumped out to a 3-0 lead early against the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, ultimately winning that game 4-2. That makes them a slight favorite to win the Stanley Cup in 2018 with a 38 percent chance. The Capitals are close behind with a 32 percent chance.
Our postseason probabilities are based on the win rates that fuel our weekly power rankings and take into account a team’s actual win-loss record; its expected win-loss record based on goals scored and allowed, also known as its Pythagorean winning percentage; and its expected win-loss record based on expected goals for and against, a metric created by hockey metrics website Corsica, which takes into account the likelihood a shot becomes a goal based on distance, angle and whether the attempt was a rebound, on the rush or generated on the power play.
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