If the spread doesn’t move much further, or better yet widens back in New England’s favor, Miami could be a decent value play.
Here are some other prime picks to consider:
Prime pick success rate: 12-17-1
Denver Broncos (-4) at San Francisco 49ers
Pick: Denver Broncos -4
Their opponent, the San Francisco 49ers, ranks 25th in DVOA due to scoring a lackluster 1.8 points per drive with the second-lowest red-zone efficiency of 2018 (45 percent).
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Pick: Houston Texans -4.5
The Colts are coming off a humiliating 6-0 loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville pressured Colts quarterback Andrew Luck 24 times in the game, sacking him three times with 18 hits and hurries, dropping his passer rating almost in half from 81.4 in a clean pocket to 43.5 under pressure.
The Texans pass rush, featuring J.J. Watt (11.5 sacks in 2018) and Jadeveon Clowney (seven sacks) is just as good, and it harassed Luck in the first matchup between these two teams, totaling four sacks, six tackles for a loss and seven hits. Clowney also added a touchdown on a fumble recovery. Watt, meanwhile, is tied with Chicago’s Khahil Mack for the second-most forced fumbles with five, trailing only the Dee Ford of the Kansas City Chiefs, who has six.
Note: You’ll see below that the Giants/Redskins game should fall among our prime picks, but our model does not adjust for injuries and Washington has been decimated by them. We’d steer clear of that one. Same for the Bengals, who will be without star receiver A.J. Green and quarterback Andy Dalton.
The games above represent my best plays of the week because my analysis shows the point spreads are divergent from what I expect to happen once the teams take the field. One reason the house wins so often is because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. This makes trying to pick every single NFL game something of a fool’s errand. The odds should be in my favor in the games above, which is why I think they’re worth a bet. Below you’ll find our chart predicting the betting edge for every game.